Week 2 · Sun, 8:20 PM EDT · NBC
Indianapolis Colts at Kansas City Chiefs
Arrowhead Stadium, Kansas City, MO
Market line for comparison: KC -6.5 · O/U 46.5 (DraftKings). The model never sees this.
Rating inputs
Each starting rating is a weighted blend of five real football inputs, not just wins and losses. Every term below is measured from the 2025 season.
Indianapolis Colts
| Input | Rating | Weight | Contribution |
|---|---|---|---|
Elo from results 8-9 in 2025, opponent-adjusted | 1434 | 80% | 1147.0 |
Scoring strength 466–412 points (+54.0 differential) → 57.3% expected win rate | 1551 | 5% | 77.5 |
Late-season form same replay with the closing 6 weeks counted double | 1392 | 15% | 208.8 |
Offense / defense split 27.4 PPG scored, 24.2 allowed → offense 1610, defense 1469 | 1579 | 0% | 0.0 |
| Blended 2025 rating | 1433.4 | ||
Offseason regression 25% back toward the 1500 league mean | 1450.0 | ||
Roster / QB adjustment No offseason adjustment applied. | 0.0 | ||
| IND 2026 starting rating | 1450 | ||
Kansas City Chiefs
| Input | Rating | Weight | Contribution |
|---|---|---|---|
Elo from results 6-11 in 2025, opponent-adjusted | 1416 | 80% | 1132.7 |
Scoring strength 362–328 points (+34.0 differential) → 55.8% expected win rate | 1541 | 5% | 77.0 |
Late-season form same replay with the closing 6 weeks counted double | 1331 | 15% | 199.6 |
Offense / defense split 21.3 PPG scored, 19.3 allowed → offense 1457, defense 1593 | 1550 | 0% | 0.0 |
| Blended 2025 rating | 1409.3 | ||
Offseason regression 25% back toward the 1500 league mean | 1432.0 | ||
Roster / QB adjustment No offseason adjustment applied. | 0.0 | ||
| KC 2026 starting rating | 1432 | ||
The calculation
Every term the model applies, in order, from both teams' starting ratings to the number on the card.
Win probability
1 / (1 + 10−(138.6 / 400))
69.0% KC
Model spread
138.6 ÷ 25, rounded to the nearest half point
KC -5.5
Confidence band
Injury adjustment
Report pulled 2026-10-27 13:20 UTCRatings describe a team over a whole season. Who is actually available on Sunday is a separate question, so the injury adjustment is applied last, after home field and rest. Each listed player costs a share of a point of spread based on his position, whether he starts, and how likely he is to play.
Before injuries
62.7%
KC by 3.5
Injury term
+48.5 Elo
+1.9 pts of spread, home perspective
After injuries
68.9%
KC by 5.5 · moved 6.3 pts of probability
Indianapolis Colts
−0.6 pts
- Alec Pierce WROut−0.10
- CJ Allen LBOut−0.10
- Tyler Warren TEOut−0.10
- Anthony Gould WROut−0.10
Kansas City Chiefs
−0.3 pts
- Brashard Smith RBOut−0.10
- Josh Simmons OTOut−0.10
- Rashee Rice WRQuestionable−0.03
- Jaylon Moore OTQuestionable−0.03
Statuses come straight from the league injury report: out and injured reserve count in full, doubtful three quarters, questionable roughly a third, probable a tenth. Starters are identified from the depth chart; anyone the model cannot place is treated as a backup.
Move the factors yourself
Every term feeds one number: the adjusted Elo difference. Drag any of them and watch the spread and confidence follow.
Drag to see how much a stronger or weaker host changes the call.
The two ratings only matter through their difference.
The tuned value is a flat 25 points for every host.
5 Elo per extra day of rest, capped at 25 either way.
A manual thumb on the scale, in the home team's direction.
Win probability
62.7% KC
Model value
Model spread
KC -3.5
Elo diff +90.1 · Lean
Probability curve
The logistic curve from −600 to +600 Elo, home perspective. The dot is your current setting; the faint vertical line is where the model itself sits. Notice the curve is flattest at the extremes — near a coin flip, every point of Elo moves the number most.
Where the ratings came from
Each rating is the end state of a full 2025 season of Elo updates, regressed toward the league mean for the new season.
- 2025 final rating
- 1433.8
- Regress 25% toward 1500
- +16.2
- 2026 starting rating
- 1450.0
2025 Elo trail
Biggest swings
- W 33–8 vs MIA+41.9
- L 20–27 at PIT−37.5
- W 40–6 vs LV+34.0
- 2025 final rating
- 1415.8
- Regress 25% toward 1500
- +16.2
- 2026 starting rating
- 1432.0
2025 Elo trail
Biggest swings
- L 9–26 at TEN−47.8
- W 30–17 vs DET+42.5
- W 22–9 at NYG+39.4
Matchup factors
Everything beyond the two base ratings that moved this specific number.
Home field
+25.0 pts
worth 3.2 points of win probability
KC hosts at Arrowhead Stadium. Every host gets the same flat 25 points — the model does not rate crowds individually.
Rest
−5.0 pts
worth 0.6 points of win probability
5 Elo points per extra day of rest, capped at 25 either way.
2025 head to head
- Week 12: KC won 23–20 (KC at home)
Strength of schedule
Who each team actually played in 2025, measured by their opponents' current ratings. This is context for reading the ratings — it is not an input to the prediction above, because beating good teams already raises a team's Elo more.
1516
average opponent rating · 4th toughest of 32
- vs above-average teams
- 3-8
- vs below-average teams
- 5-1
1500
average opponent rating · 16th toughest of 32
- vs above-average teams
- 1-8
- vs below-average teams
- 5-3
What the model does not know
- · How an injury actually plays out — the adjustment above prices availability, not how well a replacement performs.
- · Coaching and roster turnover between seasons.
- · Weather, travel distance and short-week fatigue beyond raw rest days.
- · Anything a betting market has priced in since the season ended.