NFL news, scores and analytics — with the math shown.
Headlines and live scores from around the league, power rankings for all 32 teams, playoff odds from 10,000 simulated seasons, and a win probability on every game that you can take apart line by line.
- Backtest accuracy
- 64%
- 272 games replayed
- Brier score
- 0.222
- Lower is better
- Live record
- 2-0
- 100%
- Teams rated
- 32
- Updated every week
Around the league
Today's NFL headlines
The league news feed is unavailable right now. Model pages below are unaffected.
Model board
This week's games and win probabilities
nyjat
tenSun, 1:00 PM EDTten -2.559%Lean
balat
indSun, 1:00 PM EDTbal -2.057%Lean
atlat
pitSun, 1:00 PM EDTpit -1.556%Lean
chiat
carSun, 1:00 PM EDTchi -1.053%Coin flip
cleat
jaxSun, 1:00 PM EDTjax -6.071%Confident
bufat
houSun, 1:00 PM EDThou -1.556%Lean
tbat
cinSun, 1:00 PM EDTcin -2.559%Lean
noat
detSun, 1:00 PM EDTdet -0.552%Coin flip
Probabilities come from each team's rating, home field and rest. Click any game for the full step-by-step math.
Season outlook
Title odds and projected wins
Bar shows playoff probability; the number is the chance of winning it all across 10,000 simulated seasons.
Fantasy football
Draft board cheat sheet — top projected players
QB
- 1Josh Allenbuf · ADP 19.6370.3
- 2Lamar Jacksonbal · ADP 35.4322.3
- 3Drake Mayene · ADP 47.4319.9
RB
- 1Jahmyr Gibbsdet · ADP 1.4364.9
- 2Bijan Robinsonatl · ADP 2.4352.7
- 3Christian McCaffreysf · ADP 7.7341.8
WR
- 1Puka Nacualar · ADP 5.3353.5
- 2Ja'Marr Chasecin · ADP 4.3336.9
- 3Jaxon Smith-Njigbasea · ADP 6.2326.6
TE
- 1Trey McBrideari · ADP 22.4241.7
- 2Brock Bowerslv · ADP 24.0240.8
- 3Tyler Warrenind · ADP 51.9210.6
Projected season-long PPR points across a 600-player pool. Numbers per player.
Position-by-position strategy, sleepers and a week-by-week matchup chart — plus full rankings with real stats, ADP and projected points.
League leaders
Who's out in front · 2026 season
Passing yardsBrock PurdySF205
Rushing yardsChristian McCaffreySF68
Receiving yardsJaxon Smith-NjigbaSEA122
TacklesErnest Jones IVSEA13
SacksLeonard WilliamsSEA1
InterceptionsJulian LoveSEA1- Passing TDsBrock PurdySF3
Rushing TDsKyren WilliamsLAR1
Receiving TDsMike EvansSF1
Analysis
From the notebook
A weekly recap rebuilt from live scores and standings, plus long-form pieces on the ratings and what 10,000 simulated seasons say about 2026.
- Betting Math
Model vs Vegas: Week 1's biggest gaps
Four Week 1 games where the model's spread is more than two points away from the posted line — including a five-point gap on Chargers-Cardinals.
5 min read - Betting Math
Turning win probability into a spread
The model prices every game as a percentage first and a spread second. The conversion is one division — and understanding it tells you when a number disagrees with the market.
5 min read - Ratings
Offense vs defense: splitting the ratings
The Rams have the league's best offensive rating at 1686 and the Seahawks the best defensive rating at 1646. Only one team is top five in both.
5 min read - Season Preview
Reading the 2026 playoff odds
The forecast runs the full 2026 schedule 10,000 times. The results say the league is flatter than the ratings board suggests — and that nobody is above a 62% playoff shot.
6 min read - Ratings
Closing form: who finished 2025 hot
The model weights the last six games more heavily than the first eleven. Seattle closed 81 points above its season rating; Kansas City closed 85 points below.
4 min read - Model
What a 64% backtest actually means
The model called 64% of 2025 games correctly with a Brier score of 0.222. Here is why that is good, why it is not impressive, and which number to watch instead.
6 min read
No black box
Every number on this site can be traced back to a game that was played.
Ratings are built by replaying real results one at a time — who won, by how much, and against whom. Home field, rest and margin of victory are all priced explicitly, then turned into a win probability with a single published formula. Nothing is hand-tuned after the fact, and every prediction is graded against the final score.