Week 3 · Sun, 1:00 PM EDT · CBS
Houston Texans at Indianapolis Colts
Lucas Oil Stadium, Indianapolis, IN
Market line for comparison: HOU -2.5 · O/U 43.5 (DraftKings). The model never sees this.
Rating inputs
Each starting rating is a weighted blend of five real football inputs, not just wins and losses. Every term below is measured from the 2025 season.
Houston Texans
| Input | Rating | Weight | Contribution |
|---|---|---|---|
Elo from results 12-5 in 2025, opponent-adjusted | 1608 | 80% | 1286.6 |
Scoring strength 404–295 points (+109.0 differential) → 67.8% expected win rate | 1629 | 5% | 81.5 |
Late-season form same replay with the closing 6 weeks counted double | 1661 | 15% | 249.1 |
Offense / defense split 23.8 PPG scored, 17.4 allowed → offense 1519, defense 1642 | 1660 | 0% | 0.0 |
| Blended 2025 rating | 1617.1 | ||
Offseason regression 25% back toward the 1500 league mean | 1587.8 | ||
Roster / QB adjustment No offseason adjustment applied. | 0.0 | ||
| HOU 2026 starting rating | 1588 | ||
Indianapolis Colts
| Input | Rating | Weight | Contribution |
|---|---|---|---|
Elo from results 8-9 in 2025, opponent-adjusted | 1434 | 80% | 1147.0 |
Scoring strength 466–412 points (+54.0 differential) → 57.3% expected win rate | 1551 | 5% | 77.5 |
Late-season form same replay with the closing 6 weeks counted double | 1392 | 15% | 208.8 |
Offense / defense split 27.4 PPG scored, 24.2 allowed → offense 1610, defense 1469 | 1579 | 0% | 0.0 |
| Blended 2025 rating | 1433.4 | ||
Offseason regression 25% back toward the 1500 league mean | 1450.0 | ||
Roster / QB adjustment No offseason adjustment applied. | 0.0 | ||
| IND 2026 starting rating | 1450 | ||
The calculation
Every term the model applies, in order, from both teams' starting ratings to the number on the card.
Win probability
1 / (1 + 10−(-31.7 / 400))
54.5% HOU
Model spread
-31.7 ÷ 25, rounded to the nearest half point
HOU -1.5
Confidence band
Injury adjustment
Report pulled 2026-10-27 13:20 UTCRatings describe a team over a whole season. Who is actually available on Sunday is a separate question, so the injury adjustment is applied last, after home field and rest. Each listed player costs a share of a point of spread based on his position, whether he starts, and how likely he is to play.
Before injuries
58.9%
HOU by 2.5
Injury term
+30.8 Elo
+1.2 pts of spread, home perspective
After injuries
54.5%
HOU by 1.5 · moved 4.3 pts of probability
Houston Texans
−0.4 pts
- Jalen Pitre SOut−0.10
- David Montgomery RBOut−0.10
- Reed Blankenship SOut−0.10
- Blake Fisher OTOut−0.10
Indianapolis Colts
−0.6 pts
- Bryce Boettcher LBOut−0.10
- Sauce Gardner CBOut−0.10
- CJ Allen LBOut−0.10
- Alec Pierce WROut−0.10
Statuses come straight from the league injury report: out and injured reserve count in full, doubtful three quarters, questionable roughly a third, probable a tenth. Starters are identified from the depth chart; anyone the model cannot place is treated as a backup.
Move the factors yourself
Every term feeds one number: the adjusted Elo difference. Drag any of them and watch the spread and confidence follow.
Drag to see how much a stronger or weaker host changes the call.
The two ratings only matter through their difference.
The tuned value is a flat 25 points for every host.
5 Elo per extra day of rest, capped at 25 either way.
A manual thumb on the scale, in the home team's direction.
Win probability
58.9% HOU
Model value
Model spread
HOU -2.5
Elo diff −62.5 · Lean
Probability curve
The logistic curve from −600 to +600 Elo, home perspective. The dot is your current setting; the faint vertical line is where the model itself sits. Notice the curve is flattest at the extremes — near a coin flip, every point of Elo moves the number most.
Where the ratings came from
Each rating is the end state of a full 2025 season of Elo updates, regressed toward the league mean for the new season.
- 2025 final rating
- 1608.2
- Regress 25% toward 1500
- −20.4
- 2026 starting rating
- 1587.8
2025 Elo trail
Biggest swings
- W 44–10 at BAL+49.0
- W 26–0 vs TEN+37.4
- W 26–15 vs SF+34.7
- 2025 final rating
- 1433.8
- Regress 25% toward 1500
- +16.2
- 2026 starting rating
- 1450.0
2025 Elo trail
Biggest swings
- W 33–8 vs MIA+41.9
- L 20–27 at PIT−37.5
- W 40–6 vs LV+34.0
Matchup factors
Everything beyond the two base ratings that moved this specific number.
Home field
+25.0 pts
worth 3.5 points of win probability
IND hosts at Lucas Oil Stadium. Every host gets the same flat 25 points — the model does not rate crowds individually.
2025 head to head
- Week 13: HOU won 20–16 (IND at home)
- Week 18: HOU won 38–30 (IND on the road)
Strength of schedule
Who each team actually played in 2025, measured by their opponents' current ratings. This is context for reading the ratings — it is not an input to the prediction above, because beating good teams already raises a team's Elo more.
1503
average opponent rating · 14th toughest of 32
- vs above-average teams
- 5-4
- vs below-average teams
- 7-1
1516
average opponent rating · 4th toughest of 32
- vs above-average teams
- 3-8
- vs below-average teams
- 5-1
What the model does not know
- · How an injury actually plays out — the adjustment above prices availability, not how well a replacement performs.
- · Coaching and roster turnover between seasons.
- · Weather, travel distance and short-week fatigue beyond raw rest days.
- · Anything a betting market has priced in since the season ended.