Week 4 · Sun, 9:30 AM EDT · NFL Net
Indianapolis Colts at Washington Commanders
Neutral site · Tottenham Hotspur Stadium, London
Market line for comparison: IND -3.5 · O/U 47.5 (Draft Kings). The model never sees this.
Rating inputs
Each starting rating is a weighted blend of five real football inputs, not just wins and losses. Every term below is measured from the 2025 season.
Indianapolis Colts
| Input | Rating | Weight | Contribution |
|---|---|---|---|
Elo from results 8-9 in 2025, opponent-adjusted | 1434 | 80% | 1147.0 |
Scoring strength 466–412 points (+54.0 differential) → 57.3% expected win rate | 1551 | 5% | 77.5 |
Late-season form same replay with the closing 6 weeks counted double | 1392 | 15% | 208.8 |
Offense / defense split 27.4 PPG scored, 24.2 allowed → offense 1610, defense 1469 | 1579 | 0% | 0.0 |
| Blended 2025 rating | 1433.4 | ||
Offseason regression 25% back toward the 1500 league mean | 1450.0 | ||
Roster / QB adjustment No offseason adjustment applied. | 0.0 | ||
| IND 2026 starting rating | 1450 | ||
Washington Commanders
| Input | Rating | Weight | Contribution |
|---|---|---|---|
Elo from results 5-12 in 2025, opponent-adjusted | 1448 | 80% | 1158.2 |
Scoring strength 356–451 points (-95.0 differential) → 36.3% expected win rate | 1403 | 5% | 70.1 |
Late-season form same replay with the closing 6 weeks counted double | 1452 | 15% | 217.8 |
Offense / defense split 20.9 PPG scored, 26.5 allowed → offense 1448, defense 1412 | 1360 | 0% | 0.0 |
| Blended 2025 rating | 1446.1 | ||
Offseason regression 25% back toward the 1500 league mean | 1459.6 | ||
Roster / QB adjustment No offseason adjustment applied. | 0.0 | ||
| WSH 2026 starting rating | 1460 | ||
The calculation
Every term the model applies, in order, from both teams' starting ratings to the number on the card.
Win probability
1 / (1 + 10−(-142.4 / 400))
69.4% IND
Model spread
-142.4 ÷ 25, rounded to the nearest half point
IND -5.5
Confidence band
Injury adjustment
Report pulled 2026-10-27 13:20 UTCRatings describe a team over a whole season. Who is actually available on Sunday is a separate question, so the injury adjustment is applied last, after home field and rest. Each listed player costs a share of a point of spread based on his position, whether he starts, and how likely he is to play.
Before injuries
48.8%
IND by 0.5
Injury term
−150.8 Elo
−6.0 pts of spread, home perspective
After injuries
69.4%
IND by 5.5 · moved 20.6 pts of probability
Indianapolis Colts
−0.6 pts
- Anthony Gould WROut−0.10
- Bryce Boettcher LBOut−0.10
- Alec Pierce WROut−0.10
- CJ Allen LBOut−0.10
Washington Commanders
−0.4 pts
- Javontae Jean-Baptiste LBOut−0.10
- Jaylin Lane WROut−0.10
- Terry McLaurin WROut−0.10
- Javon Kinlaw DTQuestionable−0.03
Statuses come straight from the league injury report: out and injured reserve count in full, doubtful three quarters, questionable roughly a third, probable a tenth. Starters are identified from the depth chart; anyone the model cannot place is treated as a backup.
Move the factors yourself
Every term feeds one number: the adjusted Elo difference. Drag any of them and watch the spread and confidence follow.
Drag to see how much a stronger or weaker host changes the call.
The two ratings only matter through their difference.
Neutral site, so the model applies 0. The tuned value elsewhere is 25.
5 Elo per extra day of rest, capped at 25 either way.
A manual thumb on the scale, in the home team's direction.
Win probability
51.2% WSH
Model value
Model spread
WSH -0.5
Elo diff +8.3 · Coin flip
Probability curve
The logistic curve from −600 to +600 Elo, home perspective. The dot is your current setting; the faint vertical line is where the model itself sits. Notice the curve is flattest at the extremes — near a coin flip, every point of Elo moves the number most.
Where the ratings came from
Each rating is the end state of a full 2025 season of Elo updates, regressed toward the league mean for the new season.
- 2025 final rating
- 1433.8
- Regress 25% toward 1500
- +16.2
- 2026 starting rating
- 1450.0
2025 Elo trail
Biggest swings
- W 33–8 vs MIA+41.9
- L 20–27 at PIT−37.5
- W 40–6 vs LV+34.0
- 2025 final rating
- 1447.8
- Regress 25% toward 1500
- +11.8
- 2026 starting rating
- 1459.6
2025 Elo trail
Biggest swings
- W 27–10 at LAC+48.4
- L 22–44 at DAL−46.9
- W 24–17 at PHI+46.7
Matchup factors
Everything beyond the two base ratings that moved this specific number.
Home field
Neutral
Played at Tottenham Hotspur Stadium, London. Neither side gets the 25-point host bonus.
2025 head to head
These teams did not meet in 2025. Past meetings carry no weight in the model anyway — they are already baked into each team's rating.
Strength of schedule
Who each team actually played in 2025, measured by their opponents' current ratings. This is context for reading the ratings — it is not an input to the prediction above, because beating good teams already raises a team's Elo more.
1516
average opponent rating · 4th toughest of 32
- vs above-average teams
- 3-8
- vs below-average teams
- 5-1
1494
average opponent rating · 23rd toughest of 32
- vs above-average teams
- 2-6
- vs below-average teams
- 3-6
What the model does not know
- · How an injury actually plays out — the adjustment above prices availability, not how well a replacement performs.
- · Coaching and roster turnover between seasons.
- · Weather, travel distance and short-week fatigue beyond raw rest days.
- · Anything a betting market has priced in since the season ended.