Week 4 · Sun, 1:00 PM EDT · CBS
New England Patriots at Buffalo Bills
Highmark Stadium, Orchard Park, NY
Market line for comparison: BUF -7 · O/U 48.5 (Draft Kings). The model never sees this.
Rating inputs
Each starting rating is a weighted blend of five real football inputs, not just wins and losses. Every term below is measured from the 2025 season.
New England Patriots
| Input | Rating | Weight | Contribution |
|---|---|---|---|
Elo from results 14-3 in 2025, opponent-adjusted | 1607 | 80% | 1285.9 |
Scoring strength 490–320 points (+170.0 differential) → 73.3% expected win rate | 1675 | 5% | 83.8 |
Late-season form same replay with the closing 6 weeks counted double | 1641 | 15% | 246.1 |
Offense / defense split 28.8 PPG scored, 18.8 allowed → offense 1645, defense 1605 | 1750 | 0% | 0.0 |
| Blended 2025 rating | 1615.8 | ||
Offseason regression 25% back toward the 1500 league mean | 1586.8 | ||
Roster / QB adjustment No offseason adjustment applied. | 0.0 | ||
| NE 2026 starting rating | 1587 | ||
Buffalo Bills
| Input | Rating | Weight | Contribution |
|---|---|---|---|
Elo from results 12-5 in 2025, opponent-adjusted | 1577 | 80% | 1261.8 |
Scoring strength 481–365 points (+116.0 differential) → 65.8% expected win rate | 1614 | 5% | 80.7 |
Late-season form same replay with the closing 6 weeks counted double | 1619 | 15% | 242.8 |
Offense / defense split 28.3 PPG scored, 21.5 allowed → offense 1632, defense 1539 | 1671 | 0% | 0.0 |
| Blended 2025 rating | 1585.4 | ||
Offseason regression 25% back toward the 1500 league mean | 1564.0 | ||
Roster / QB adjustment No offseason adjustment applied. | 0.0 | ||
| BUF 2026 starting rating | 1564 | ||
The calculation
Every term the model applies, in order, from both teams' starting ratings to the number on the card.
Win probability
1 / (1 + 10−(53.7 / 400))
57.7% BUF
Model spread
53.7 ÷ 25, rounded to the nearest half point
BUF -2.0
Confidence band
Injury adjustment
Report pulled 2026-10-27 13:20 UTCRatings describe a team over a whole season. Who is actually available on Sunday is a separate question, so the injury adjustment is applied last, after home field and rest. Each listed player costs a share of a point of spread based on his position, whether he starts, and how likely he is to play.
Before injuries
62.2%
BUF by 3.5
Injury term
−32.5 Elo
−1.3 pts of spread, home perspective
After injuries
57.7%
BUF by 2.0 · moved 4.5 pts of probability
New England Patriots
−0.6 pts
- Marcus Bryant OTOut−0.10
- Channing Canada CBOut−0.10
- Carlton Davis III CBOut−0.10
- Alijah Vera-Tucker GOut−0.10
Buffalo Bills
−0.2 pts
- C.J. Gardner-Johnson SOut−0.10
- Ed Oliver DTQuestionable−0.03
- DJ Moore WRQuestionable−0.03
Statuses come straight from the league injury report: out and injured reserve count in full, doubtful three quarters, questionable roughly a third, probable a tenth. Starters are identified from the depth chart; anyone the model cannot place is treated as a backup.
Move the factors yourself
Every term feeds one number: the adjusted Elo difference. Drag any of them and watch the spread and confidence follow.
Drag to see how much a stronger or weaker host changes the call.
The two ratings only matter through their difference.
The tuned value is a flat 25 points for every host.
5 Elo per extra day of rest, capped at 25 either way.
A manual thumb on the scale, in the home team's direction.
Win probability
62.2% BUF
Model value
Model spread
BUF -3.5
Elo diff +86.2 · Lean
Probability curve
The logistic curve from −600 to +600 Elo, home perspective. The dot is your current setting; the faint vertical line is where the model itself sits. Notice the curve is flattest at the extremes — near a coin flip, every point of Elo moves the number most.
Where the ratings came from
Each rating is the end state of a full 2025 season of Elo updates, regressed toward the league mean for the new season.
- 2025 final rating
- 1607.4
- Regress 25% toward 1500
- −20.5
- 2026 starting rating
- 1586.8
2025 Elo trail
Biggest swings
- W 42–13 vs CAR+49.9
- L 14–21 vs PIT−34.4
- L 13–20 vs LV−31.6
- 2025 final rating
- 1577.3
- Regress 25% toward 1500
- −13.3
- 2026 starting rating
- 1564.0
2025 Elo trail
Biggest swings
- L 13–30 at MIA−57.0
- W 40–9 at CAR+55.2
- W 30–10 at NYJ+42.9
Matchup factors
Everything beyond the two base ratings that moved this specific number.
Home field
+25.0 pts
worth 3.5 points of win probability
BUF hosts at Highmark Stadium. Every host gets the same flat 25 points — the model does not rate crowds individually.
2025 head to head
- Week 5: NE won 23–20 (BUF at home)
- Week 15: BUF won 35–31 (BUF on the road)
Strength of schedule
Who each team actually played in 2025, measured by their opponents' current ratings. This is context for reading the ratings — it is not an input to the prediction above, because beating good teams already raises a team's Elo more.
1477
average opponent rating · 30th toughest of 32
- vs above-average teams
- 4-2
- vs below-average teams
- 10-1
1492
average opponent rating · 26th toughest of 32
- vs above-average teams
- 4-4
- vs below-average teams
- 8-1
What the model does not know
- · How an injury actually plays out — the adjustment above prices availability, not how well a replacement performs.
- · Coaching and roster turnover between seasons.
- · Weather, travel distance and short-week fatigue beyond raw rest days.
- · Anything a betting market has priced in since the season ended.