Week 4 · Sun, 1:00 PM EDT · FOX
Los Angeles Rams at Philadelphia Eagles
Lincoln Financial Field, Philadelphia, PA
Market line for comparison: LAR -2.5 · O/U 46.5 (Draft Kings). The model never sees this.
Rating inputs
Each starting rating is a weighted blend of five real football inputs, not just wins and losses. Every term below is measured from the 2025 season.
Los Angeles Rams
| Input | Rating | Weight | Contribution |
|---|---|---|---|
Elo from results 12-5 in 2025, opponent-adjusted | 1568 | 80% | 1254.8 |
Scoring strength 518–346 points (+172.0 differential) → 72.2% expected win rate | 1666 | 5% | 83.3 |
Late-season form same replay with the closing 6 weeks counted double | 1568 | 15% | 235.2 |
Offense / defense split 30.5 PPG scored, 20.4 allowed → offense 1686, defense 1567 | 1753 | 0% | 0.0 |
| Blended 2025 rating | 1573.3 | ||
Offseason regression 25% back toward the 1500 league mean | 1555.0 | ||
Roster / QB adjustment No offseason adjustment applied. | 0.0 | ||
| LAR 2026 starting rating | 1555 | ||
Philadelphia Eagles
| Input | Rating | Weight | Contribution |
|---|---|---|---|
Elo from results 11-6 in 2025, opponent-adjusted | 1502 | 80% | 1201.7 |
Scoring strength 379–325 points (+54.0 differential) → 59.0% expected win rate | 1563 | 5% | 78.2 |
Late-season form same replay with the closing 6 weeks counted double | 1473 | 15% | 220.9 |
Offense / defense split 22.3 PPG scored, 19.1 allowed → offense 1482, defense 1597 | 1579 | 0% | 0.0 |
| Blended 2025 rating | 1500.8 | ||
Offseason regression 25% back toward the 1500 league mean | 1500.6 | ||
Roster / QB adjustment No offseason adjustment applied. | 0.0 | ||
| PHI 2026 starting rating | 1501 | ||
The calculation
Every term the model applies, in order, from both teams' starting ratings to the number on the card.
Win probability
1 / (1 + 10−(-52.1 / 400))
57.5% LAR
Model spread
-52.1 ÷ 25, rounded to the nearest half point
LAR -2.0
Confidence band
Injury adjustment
Report pulled 2026-10-27 13:20 UTCRatings describe a team over a whole season. Who is actually available on Sunday is a separate question, so the injury adjustment is applied last, after home field and rest. Each listed player costs a share of a point of spread based on his position, whether he starts, and how likely he is to play.
Before injuries
52.3%
LAR by 0.5
Injury term
−36.3 Elo
−1.4 pts of spread, home perspective
After injuries
57.4%
LAR by 2.0 · moved 5.2 pts of probability
Los Angeles Rams
−0.5 pts
- Kobie Turner DEOut−0.10
- Poona Ford DTOut−0.10
- Myles Garrett DEOut−0.10
- Terrance Ferguson TEOut−0.10
Philadelphia Eagles
−0.9 pts
- Cole Payton QBOut−0.10
- Jakorian Bennett CBOut−0.10
- Lane Johnson OTOut−0.10
- Dontayvion Wicks WROut−0.10
Statuses come straight from the league injury report: out and injured reserve count in full, doubtful three quarters, questionable roughly a third, probable a tenth. Starters are identified from the depth chart; anyone the model cannot place is treated as a backup.
Move the factors yourself
Every term feeds one number: the adjusted Elo difference. Drag any of them and watch the spread and confidence follow.
Drag to see how much a stronger or weaker host changes the call.
The two ratings only matter through their difference.
The tuned value is a flat 25 points for every host.
5 Elo per extra day of rest, capped at 25 either way.
A manual thumb on the scale, in the home team's direction.
Win probability
52.3% LAR
Model value
Model spread
LAR -0.5
Elo diff −15.9 · Coin flip
Probability curve
The logistic curve from −600 to +600 Elo, home perspective. The dot is your current setting; the faint vertical line is where the model itself sits. Notice the curve is flattest at the extremes — near a coin flip, every point of Elo moves the number most.
Where the ratings came from
Each rating is the end state of a full 2025 season of Elo updates, regressed toward the league mean for the new season.
- 2025 final rating
- 1568.5
- Regress 25% toward 1500
- −13.5
- 2026 starting rating
- 1555.0
2025 Elo trail
Biggest swings
- W 35–7 at JAX+43.8
- W 42–26 at SF+35.5
- W 33–19 at TEN+35.3
- 2025 final rating
- 1502.2
- Regress 25% toward 1500
- −1.5
- 2026 starting rating
- 1500.6
2025 Elo trail
Biggest swings
- L 17–34 at NYG−52.9
- L 17–24 vs WSH−46.7
- L 15–24 vs CHI−35.6
Matchup factors
Everything beyond the two base ratings that moved this specific number.
Home field
+25.0 pts
worth 3.5 points of win probability
PHI hosts at Lincoln Financial Field. Every host gets the same flat 25 points — the model does not rate crowds individually.
Rest
−5.0 pts
worth 0.7 points of win probability
5 Elo points per extra day of rest, capped at 25 either way.
2025 head to head
- Week 3: PHI won 33–26 (PHI at home)
Strength of schedule
Who each team actually played in 2025, measured by their opponents' current ratings. This is context for reading the ratings — it is not an input to the prediction above, because beating good teams already raises a team's Elo more.
1510
average opponent rating · 6th toughest of 32
- vs above-average teams
- 6-4
- vs below-average teams
- 6-1
1489
average opponent rating · 28th toughest of 32
- vs above-average teams
- 3-3
- vs below-average teams
- 8-3
What the model does not know
- · How an injury actually plays out — the adjustment above prices availability, not how well a replacement performs.
- · Coaching and roster turnover between seasons.
- · Weather, travel distance and short-week fatigue beyond raw rest days.
- · Anything a betting market has priced in since the season ended.