Week 5 · Sun, 4:25 PM EDT · Fox
San Francisco 49ers at Seattle Seahawks
Lumen Field, Seattle, WA
Market line for comparison: SEA -2.5 · O/U 47.5 (DraftKings). The model never sees this.
Rating inputs
Each starting rating is a weighted blend of five real football inputs, not just wins and losses. Every term below is measured from the 2025 season.
San Francisco 49ers
| Input | Rating | Weight | Contribution |
|---|---|---|---|
Elo from results 12-5 in 2025, opponent-adjusted | 1565 | 80% | 1251.9 |
Scoring strength 437–371 points (+66.0 differential) → 59.6% expected win rate | 1567 | 5% | 78.4 |
Late-season form same replay with the closing 6 weeks counted double | 1585 | 15% | 237.8 |
Offense / defense split 25.7 PPG scored, 21.8 allowed → offense 1567, defense 1530 | 1597 | 0% | 0.0 |
| Blended 2025 rating | 1568.0 | ||
Offseason regression 25% back toward the 1500 league mean | 1551.0 | ||
Roster / QB adjustment No offseason adjustment applied. | 0.0 | ||
| SF 2026 starting rating | 1551 | ||
Seattle Seahawks
| Input | Rating | Weight | Contribution |
|---|---|---|---|
Elo from results 14-3 in 2025, opponent-adjusted | 1643 | 80% | 1314.2 |
Scoring strength 483–292 points (+191.0 differential) → 76.7% expected win rate | 1707 | 5% | 85.4 |
Late-season form same replay with the closing 6 weeks counted double | 1724 | 15% | 258.6 |
Offense / defense split 28.4 PPG scored, 17.2 allowed → offense 1635, defense 1646 | 1781 | 0% | 0.0 |
| Blended 2025 rating | 1658.2 | ||
Offseason regression 25% back toward the 1500 league mean | 1618.6 | ||
Roster / QB adjustment No offseason adjustment applied. | 0.0 | ||
| SEA 2026 starting rating | 1619 | ||
The calculation
Every term the model applies, in order, from both teams' starting ratings to the number on the card.
Win probability
1 / (1 + 10−(48.6 / 400))
57.0% SEA
Model spread
48.6 ÷ 25, rounded to the nearest half point
SEA -2.0
Confidence band
Injury adjustment
Report pulled 2026-10-27 13:20 UTCRatings describe a team over a whole season. Who is actually available on Sunday is a separate question, so the injury adjustment is applied last, after home field and rest. Each listed player costs a share of a point of spread based on his position, whether he starts, and how likely he is to play.
Before injuries
51.7%
SEA by 0.5
Injury term
+36.5 Elo
+1.5 pts of spread, home perspective
After injuries
56.9%
SEA by 2.0 · moved 5.2 pts of probability
San Francisco 49ers
−0.8 pts
- Deebo Samuel Sr. WROut−0.10
- Marques Sigle SOut−0.10
- Garret Wallow LBOut−0.10
- Luke Gifford LBOut−0.10
Seattle Seahawks
−0.4 pts
- Jadarian Price RBOut−0.10
- Charles Cross OTDoubtful−0.08
- Chazz Surratt LBQuestionable−0.03
- Drew Lock QBQuestionable−0.03
Statuses come straight from the league injury report: out and injured reserve count in full, doubtful three quarters, questionable roughly a third, probable a tenth. Starters are identified from the depth chart; anyone the model cannot place is treated as a backup.
Move the factors yourself
Every term feeds one number: the adjusted Elo difference. Drag any of them and watch the spread and confidence follow.
Drag to see how much a stronger or weaker host changes the call.
The two ratings only matter through their difference.
The tuned value is a flat 25 points for every host.
5 Elo per extra day of rest, capped at 25 either way.
A manual thumb on the scale, in the home team's direction.
Win probability
51.7% SEA
Model value
Model spread
SEA -0.5
Elo diff +12.1 · Coin flip
Probability curve
The logistic curve from −600 to +600 Elo, home perspective. The dot is your current setting; the faint vertical line is where the model itself sits. Notice the curve is flattest at the extremes — near a coin flip, every point of Elo moves the number most.
Where the ratings came from
Each rating is the end state of a full 2025 season of Elo updates, regressed toward the league mean for the new season.
- 2025 final rating
- 1564.8
- Regress 25% toward 1500
- −13.8
- 2026 starting rating
- 1551.0
2025 Elo trail
Biggest swings
- W 41–22 at ARI+43.9
- L 26–42 vs LAR−35.5
- L 15–26 at HOU−34.7
- 2025 final rating
- 1642.8
- Regress 25% toward 1500
- −24.1
- 2026 starting rating
- 1618.6
2025 Elo trail
Biggest swings
- W 31–17 at PIT+45.9
- W 20–12 at JAX+36.3
- W 44–13 vs NO+34.4
Matchup factors
Everything beyond the two base ratings that moved this specific number.
Home field
+25.0 pts
worth 3.6 points of win probability
SEA hosts at Lumen Field. Every host gets the same flat 25 points — the model does not rate crowds individually.
2025 head to head
- Week 1: SF won 17–13 (SEA at home)
- Week 18: SEA won 13–3 (SEA on the road)
Strength of schedule
Who each team actually played in 2025, measured by their opponents' current ratings. This is context for reading the ratings — it is not an input to the prediction above, because beating good teams already raises a team's Elo more.
1509
average opponent rating · 7th toughest of 32
- vs above-average teams
- 5-4
- vs below-average teams
- 7-1
1503
average opponent rating · 13th toughest of 32
- vs above-average teams
- 8-2
- vs below-average teams
- 6-1
What the model does not know
- · How an injury actually plays out — the adjustment above prices availability, not how well a replacement performs.
- · Coaching and roster turnover between seasons.
- · Weather, travel distance and short-week fatigue beyond raw rest days.
- · Anything a betting market has priced in since the season ended.