Week 5 · Sun, 1:00 PM EDT · Fox
Chicago Bears at Green Bay Packers
Lambeau Field, Green Bay, WI
Market line for comparison: CHI -3 · O/U 45.5 (DraftKings). The model never sees this.
Rating inputs
Each starting rating is a weighted blend of five real football inputs, not just wins and losses. Every term below is measured from the 2025 season.
Chicago Bears
| Input | Rating | Weight | Contribution |
|---|---|---|---|
Elo from results 11-6 in 2025, opponent-adjusted | 1523 | 80% | 1218.0 |
Scoring strength 441–415 points (+26.0 differential) → 53.6% expected win rate | 1525 | 5% | 76.3 |
Late-season form same replay with the closing 6 weeks counted double | 1509 | 15% | 226.3 |
Offense / defense split 25.9 PPG scored, 24.4 allowed → offense 1573, defense 1465 | 1538 | 0% | 0.0 |
| Blended 2025 rating | 1520.6 | ||
Offseason regression 25% back toward the 1500 league mean | 1515.5 | ||
Roster / QB adjustment No offseason adjustment applied. | 0.0 | ||
| CHI 2026 starting rating | 1515 | ||
Green Bay Packers
| Input | Rating | Weight | Contribution |
|---|---|---|---|
Elo from results 9-7-1 in 2025, opponent-adjusted | 1461 | 80% | 1168.7 |
Scoring strength 391–360 points (+31.0 differential) → 54.9% expected win rate | 1534 | 5% | 76.7 |
Late-season form same replay with the closing 6 weeks counted double | 1406 | 15% | 210.9 |
Offense / defense split 23.0 PPG scored, 21.2 allowed → offense 1500, defense 1546 | 1546 | 0% | 0.0 |
| Blended 2025 rating | 1456.3 | ||
Offseason regression 25% back toward the 1500 league mean | 1467.2 | ||
Roster / QB adjustment No offseason adjustment applied. | 0.0 | ||
| GB 2026 starting rating | 1467 | ||
The calculation
Every term the model applies, in order, from both teams' starting ratings to the number on the card.
Win probability
1 / (1 + 10−(33.0 / 400))
54.7% GB
Model spread
33.0 ÷ 25, rounded to the nearest half point
GB -1.5
Confidence band
Injury adjustment
Report pulled 2026-10-27 13:20 UTCRatings describe a team over a whole season. Who is actually available on Sunday is a separate question, so the injury adjustment is applied last, after home field and rest. Each listed player costs a share of a point of spread based on his position, whether he starts, and how likely he is to play.
Before injuries
37.7%
GB by 3.5
Injury term
+120.5 Elo
+4.8 pts of spread, home perspective
After injuries
54.7%
GB by 1.5 · moved 17.1 pts of probability
Chicago Bears
−0.5 pts
- Kyle Monangai RBOut−0.10
- Cole Kmet TEOut−0.10
- T.J. Edwards LBOut−0.10
- Jack Sanborn LBOut−0.10
Green Bay Packers
−0.4 pts
- Jacob Monk COut−0.10
- Zaire Franklin LBOut−0.10
- Sean Rhyan GDoubtful−0.08
- Anthony Campbell DTQuestionable−0.03
Statuses come straight from the league injury report: out and injured reserve count in full, doubtful three quarters, questionable roughly a third, probable a tenth. Starters are identified from the depth chart; anyone the model cannot place is treated as a backup.
Move the factors yourself
Every term feeds one number: the adjusted Elo difference. Drag any of them and watch the spread and confidence follow.
Drag to see how much a stronger or weaker host changes the call.
The two ratings only matter through their difference.
The tuned value is a flat 25 points for every host.
5 Elo per extra day of rest, capped at 25 either way.
A manual thumb on the scale, in the home team's direction.
Win probability
62.3% CHI
Model value
Model spread
CHI -3.5
Elo diff −87.5 · Lean
Probability curve
The logistic curve from −600 to +600 Elo, home perspective. The dot is your current setting; the faint vertical line is where the model itself sits. Notice the curve is flattest at the extremes — near a coin flip, every point of Elo moves the number most.
Where the ratings came from
Each rating is the end state of a full 2025 season of Elo updates, regressed toward the league mean for the new season.
- 2025 final rating
- 1522.5
- Regress 25% toward 1500
- −7.1
- 2026 starting rating
- 1515.5
2025 Elo trail
Biggest swings
- L 16–30 at BAL−49.8
- L 21–52 at DET−46.5
- W 31–14 vs DAL+44.9
- 2025 final rating
- 1460.9
- Regress 25% toward 1500
- +6.3
- 2026 starting rating
- 1467.2
2025 Elo trail
Biggest swings
- L 24–41 vs BAL−48.3
- W 27–13 vs DET+34.8
- W 35–25 at PIT+32.8
Matchup factors
Everything beyond the two base ratings that moved this specific number.
Home field
+25.0 pts
worth 3.6 points of win probability
GB hosts at Lambeau Field. Every host gets the same flat 25 points — the model does not rate crowds individually.
2025 head to head
- Week 14: GB won 28–21 (GB at home)
- Week 16: CHI won 22–16 (GB on the road)
Strength of schedule
Who each team actually played in 2025, measured by their opponents' current ratings. This is context for reading the ratings — it is not an input to the prediction above, because beating good teams already raises a team's Elo more.
1494
average opponent rating · 25th toughest of 32
- vs above-average teams
- 4-3
- vs below-average teams
- 7-3
1498
average opponent rating · 19th toughest of 32
- vs above-average teams
- 3-5
- vs below-average teams
- 6-2-1
What the model does not know
- · How an injury actually plays out — the adjustment above prices availability, not how well a replacement performs.
- · Coaching and roster turnover between seasons.
- · Weather, travel distance and short-week fatigue beyond raw rest days.
- · Anything a betting market has priced in since the season ended.