Week 5 · Sun, 1:00 PM EDT · CBS
Indianapolis Colts at Pittsburgh Steelers
Acrisure Stadium, Pittsburgh, PA
Market line for comparison: PIT -2.5 · O/U 44.5 (DraftKings). The model never sees this.
Rating inputs
Each starting rating is a weighted blend of five real football inputs, not just wins and losses. Every term below is measured from the 2025 season.
Indianapolis Colts
| Input | Rating | Weight | Contribution |
|---|---|---|---|
Elo from results 8-9 in 2025, opponent-adjusted | 1434 | 80% | 1147.0 |
Scoring strength 466–412 points (+54.0 differential) → 57.3% expected win rate | 1551 | 5% | 77.5 |
Late-season form same replay with the closing 6 weeks counted double | 1392 | 15% | 208.8 |
Offense / defense split 27.4 PPG scored, 24.2 allowed → offense 1610, defense 1469 | 1579 | 0% | 0.0 |
| Blended 2025 rating | 1433.4 | ||
Offseason regression 25% back toward the 1500 league mean | 1450.0 | ||
Roster / QB adjustment No offseason adjustment applied. | 0.0 | ||
| IND 2026 starting rating | 1450 | ||
Pittsburgh Steelers
| Input | Rating | Weight | Contribution |
|---|---|---|---|
Elo from results 10-7 in 2025, opponent-adjusted | 1523 | 80% | 1218.6 |
Scoring strength 397–387 points (+10.0 differential) → 51.5% expected win rate | 1511 | 5% | 75.5 |
Late-season form same replay with the closing 6 weeks counted double | 1535 | 15% | 230.3 |
Offense / defense split 23.4 PPG scored, 22.8 allowed → offense 1509, defense 1506 | 1515 | 0% | 0.0 |
| Blended 2025 rating | 1524.4 | ||
Offseason regression 25% back toward the 1500 league mean | 1518.3 | ||
Roster / QB adjustment No offseason adjustment applied. | 0.0 | ||
| PIT 2026 starting rating | 1518 | ||
The calculation
Every term the model applies, in order, from both teams' starting ratings to the number on the card.
Win probability
1 / (1 + 10−(36.9 / 400))
55.3% PIT
Model spread
36.9 ÷ 25, rounded to the nearest half point
PIT -1.5
Confidence band
Injury adjustment
Report pulled 2026-10-27 13:20 UTCRatings describe a team over a whole season. Who is actually available on Sunday is a separate question, so the injury adjustment is applied last, after home field and rest. Each listed player costs a share of a point of spread based on his position, whether he starts, and how likely he is to play.
Before injuries
58.2%
PIT by 2.5
Injury term
−20.8 Elo
−0.8 pts of spread, home perspective
After injuries
55.3%
PIT by 1.5 · moved 2.9 pts of probability
Indianapolis Colts
−0.6 pts
- Alec Pierce WROut−0.10
- Tyler Warren TEOut−0.10
- Anthony Gould WROut−0.10
- Bryce Boettcher LBOut−0.10
Pittsburgh Steelers
−0.3 pts
- Sebastian Joseph-Day DTOut−0.10
- Ben Skowronek WROut−0.10
- Brandin Echols CBOut−0.10
Statuses come straight from the league injury report: out and injured reserve count in full, doubtful three quarters, questionable roughly a third, probable a tenth. Starters are identified from the depth chart; anyone the model cannot place is treated as a backup.
Move the factors yourself
Every term feeds one number: the adjusted Elo difference. Drag any of them and watch the spread and confidence follow.
Drag to see how much a stronger or weaker host changes the call.
The two ratings only matter through their difference.
The tuned value is a flat 25 points for every host.
5 Elo per extra day of rest, capped at 25 either way.
A manual thumb on the scale, in the home team's direction.
Win probability
58.2% PIT
Model value
Model spread
PIT -2.5
Elo diff +57.7 · Lean
Probability curve
The logistic curve from −600 to +600 Elo, home perspective. The dot is your current setting; the faint vertical line is where the model itself sits. Notice the curve is flattest at the extremes — near a coin flip, every point of Elo moves the number most.
Where the ratings came from
Each rating is the end state of a full 2025 season of Elo updates, regressed toward the league mean for the new season.
- 2025 final rating
- 1433.8
- Regress 25% toward 1500
- +16.2
- 2026 starting rating
- 1450.0
2025 Elo trail
Biggest swings
- W 33–8 vs MIA+41.9
- L 20–27 at PIT−37.5
- W 40–6 vs LV+34.0
- 2025 final rating
- 1523.3
- Regress 25% toward 1500
- −5.0
- 2026 starting rating
- 1518.3
2025 Elo trail
Biggest swings
- L 17–31 vs SEA−45.9
- L 7–26 vs BUF−42.7
- L 6–13 at CLE−40.9
Matchup factors
Everything beyond the two base ratings that moved this specific number.
Home field
+25.0 pts
worth 3.6 points of win probability
PIT hosts at Acrisure Stadium. Every host gets the same flat 25 points — the model does not rate crowds individually.
Rest
+15.0 pts
worth 2.1 points of win probability
5 Elo points per extra day of rest, capped at 25 either way.
2025 head to head
- Week 9: PIT won 27–20 (PIT at home)
Strength of schedule
Who each team actually played in 2025, measured by their opponents' current ratings. This is context for reading the ratings — it is not an input to the prediction above, because beating good teams already raises a team's Elo more.
1516
average opponent rating · 4th toughest of 32
- vs above-average teams
- 3-8
- vs below-average teams
- 5-1
1506
average opponent rating · 10th toughest of 32
- vs above-average teams
- 4-4
- vs below-average teams
- 6-3
What the model does not know
- · How an injury actually plays out — the adjustment above prices availability, not how well a replacement performs.
- · Coaching and roster turnover between seasons.
- · Weather, travel distance and short-week fatigue beyond raw rest days.
- · Anything a betting market has priced in since the season ended.