Week 6 · Sun, 4:25 PM EDT · CBS
Los Angeles Chargers at Kansas City Chiefs
Arrowhead Stadium, Kansas City, MO
Market line for comparison: KC -8.5 · O/U 42.5 (DraftKings). The model never sees this.
Rating inputs
Each starting rating is a weighted blend of five real football inputs, not just wins and losses. Every term below is measured from the 2025 season.
Los Angeles Chargers
| Input | Rating | Weight | Contribution |
|---|---|---|---|
Elo from results 11-6 in 2025, opponent-adjusted | 1511 | 80% | 1208.5 |
Scoring strength 368–340 points (+28.0 differential) → 54.7% expected win rate | 1533 | 5% | 76.6 |
Late-season form same replay with the closing 6 weeks counted double | 1495 | 15% | 224.3 |
Offense / defense split 21.6 PPG scored, 20.0 allowed → offense 1466, defense 1575 | 1541 | 0% | 0.0 |
| Blended 2025 rating | 1509.4 | ||
Offseason regression 25% back toward the 1500 league mean | 1507.1 | ||
Roster / QB adjustment No offseason adjustment applied. | 0.0 | ||
| LAC 2026 starting rating | 1507 | ||
Kansas City Chiefs
| Input | Rating | Weight | Contribution |
|---|---|---|---|
Elo from results 6-11 in 2025, opponent-adjusted | 1416 | 80% | 1132.7 |
Scoring strength 362–328 points (+34.0 differential) → 55.8% expected win rate | 1541 | 5% | 77.0 |
Late-season form same replay with the closing 6 weeks counted double | 1331 | 15% | 199.6 |
Offense / defense split 21.3 PPG scored, 19.3 allowed → offense 1457, defense 1593 | 1550 | 0% | 0.0 |
| Blended 2025 rating | 1409.3 | ||
Offseason regression 25% back toward the 1500 league mean | 1432.0 | ||
Roster / QB adjustment No offseason adjustment applied. | 0.0 | ||
| KC 2026 starting rating | 1432 | ||
The calculation
Every term the model applies, in order, from both teams' starting ratings to the number on the card.
Win probability
1 / (1 + 10−(188.8 / 400))
74.8% KC
Model spread
188.8 ÷ 25, rounded to the nearest half point
KC -7.5
Confidence band
Injury adjustment
Report pulled 2026-10-27 13:20 UTCRatings describe a team over a whole season. Who is actually available on Sunday is a separate question, so the injury adjustment is applied last, after home field and rest. Each listed player costs a share of a point of spread based on his position, whether he starts, and how likely he is to play.
Before injuries
74.3%
KC by 7.5
Injury term
+4.3 Elo
+0.2 pts of spread, home perspective
After injuries
74.8%
KC by 7.5 · moved 0.5 pts of probability
Los Angeles Chargers
−0.5 pts
- Alec Ingold FBOut−0.10
- Denzel Perryman LBOut−0.10
- Bud Dupree LBQuestionable−0.03
- Rodney Shelley CBQuestionable−0.03
Kansas City Chiefs
−0.3 pts
- Brashard Smith RBOut−0.10
- Josh Simmons OTOut−0.10
- Rashee Rice WRQuestionable−0.03
- Jaylon Moore OTQuestionable−0.03
Statuses come straight from the league injury report: out and injured reserve count in full, doubtful three quarters, questionable roughly a third, probable a tenth. Starters are identified from the depth chart; anyone the model cannot place is treated as a backup.
Move the factors yourself
Every term feeds one number: the adjusted Elo difference. Drag any of them and watch the spread and confidence follow.
Drag to see how much a stronger or weaker host changes the call.
The two ratings only matter through their difference.
The tuned value is a flat 25 points for every host.
5 Elo per extra day of rest, capped at 25 either way.
A manual thumb on the scale, in the home team's direction.
Win probability
74.3% KC
Model value
Model spread
KC -7.5
Elo diff +184.5 · Confident
Probability curve
The logistic curve from −600 to +600 Elo, home perspective. The dot is your current setting; the faint vertical line is where the model itself sits. Notice the curve is flattest at the extremes — near a coin flip, every point of Elo moves the number most.
Where the ratings came from
Each rating is the end state of a full 2025 season of Elo updates, regressed toward the league mean for the new season.
- 2025 final rating
- 1510.7
- Regress 25% toward 1500
- −3.6
- 2026 starting rating
- 1507.1
2025 Elo trail
Biggest swings
- L 6–35 at JAX−57.7
- L 10–27 vs WSH−48.4
- W 37–10 vs MIN+45.4
- 2025 final rating
- 1415.8
- Regress 25% toward 1500
- +16.2
- 2026 starting rating
- 1432.0
2025 Elo trail
Biggest swings
- L 9–26 at TEN−47.8
- W 30–17 vs DET+42.5
- W 22–9 at NYG+39.4
Matchup factors
Everything beyond the two base ratings that moved this specific number.
Home field
+25.0 pts
worth 2.8 points of win probability
KC hosts at Arrowhead Stadium. Every host gets the same flat 25 points — the model does not rate crowds individually.
Rest
+25.0 pts
worth 2.8 points of win probability
5 Elo points per extra day of rest, capped at 25 either way.
2025 head to head
- Week 1: LAC won 27–21 (KC on the road)
- Week 15: LAC won 16–13 (KC at home)
Strength of schedule
Who each team actually played in 2025, measured by their opponents' current ratings. This is context for reading the ratings — it is not an input to the prediction above, because beating good teams already raises a team's Elo more.
1488
average opponent rating · 29th toughest of 32
- vs above-average teams
- 4-3
- vs below-average teams
- 7-3
1500
average opponent rating · 16th toughest of 32
- vs above-average teams
- 1-8
- vs below-average teams
- 5-3
What the model does not know
- · How an injury actually plays out — the adjustment above prices availability, not how well a replacement performs.
- · Coaching and roster turnover between seasons.
- · Weather, travel distance and short-week fatigue beyond raw rest days.
- · Anything a betting market has priced in since the season ended.