Week 6 · Sun, 1:00 PM EDT · Fox
New Orleans Saints at New York Giants
MetLife Stadium, East Rutherford, NJ
Market line for comparison: NYG -1.5 · O/U 45.5 (DraftKings). The model never sees this.
Rating inputs
Each starting rating is a weighted blend of five real football inputs, not just wins and losses. Every term below is measured from the 2025 season.
New Orleans Saints
| Input | Rating | Weight | Contribution |
|---|---|---|---|
Elo from results 6-11 in 2025, opponent-adjusted | 1512 | 80% | 1209.4 |
Scoring strength 306–383 points (-77.0 differential) → 37.0% expected win rate | 1408 | 5% | 70.4 |
Late-season form same replay with the closing 6 weeks counted double | 1552 | 15% | 232.8 |
Offense / defense split 18.0 PPG scored, 22.5 allowed → offense 1375, defense 1512 | 1387 | 0% | 0.0 |
| Blended 2025 rating | 1512.6 | ||
Offseason regression 25% back toward the 1500 league mean | 1509.4 | ||
Roster / QB adjustment No offseason adjustment applied. | 0.0 | ||
| NO 2026 starting rating | 1509 | ||
New York Giants
| Input | Rating | Weight | Contribution |
|---|---|---|---|
Elo from results 4-13 in 2025, opponent-adjusted | 1482 | 80% | 1185.6 |
Scoring strength 381–439 points (-58.0 differential) → 41.7% expected win rate | 1442 | 5% | 72.1 |
Late-season form same replay with the closing 6 weeks counted double | 1513 | 15% | 227.0 |
Offense / defense split 22.4 PPG scored, 25.8 allowed → offense 1485, defense 1430 | 1415 | 0% | 0.0 |
| Blended 2025 rating | 1484.6 | ||
Offseason regression 25% back toward the 1500 league mean | 1488.5 | ||
Roster / QB adjustment No offseason adjustment applied. | 0.0 | ||
| NYG 2026 starting rating | 1488 | ||
The calculation
Every term the model applies, in order, from both teams' starting ratings to the number on the card.
Win probability
1 / (1 + 10−(98.5 / 400))
63.8% NYG
Model spread
98.5 ÷ 25, rounded to the nearest half point
NYG -4.0
Confidence band
Injury adjustment
Report pulled 2026-10-27 13:20 UTCRatings describe a team over a whole season. Who is actually available on Sunday is a separate question, so the injury adjustment is applied last, after home field and rest. Each listed player costs a share of a point of spread based on his position, whether he starts, and how likely he is to play.
Before injuries
63.9%
NYG by 4.0
Injury term
−0.8 Elo
−0.0 pts of spread, home perspective
After injuries
63.8%
NYG by 4.0 · moved 0.1 pts of probability
New Orleans Saints
−0.2 pts
- Jordyn Tyson WROut−0.10
- Cesar Ruiz GQuestionable−0.03
- CJ Donaldson RBQuestionable−0.03
- Nathan Shepherd DTQuestionable−0.03
New York Giants
−0.6 pts
- Jevon Holland SOut−0.10
- Tremaine Edmunds LBOut−0.10
- Theo Johnson TEOut−0.10
- Greg Newsome II CBOut−0.10
Statuses come straight from the league injury report: out and injured reserve count in full, doubtful three quarters, questionable roughly a third, probable a tenth. Starters are identified from the depth chart; anyone the model cannot place is treated as a backup.
Move the factors yourself
Every term feeds one number: the adjusted Elo difference. Drag any of them and watch the spread and confidence follow.
Drag to see how much a stronger or weaker host changes the call.
The two ratings only matter through their difference.
The tuned value is a flat 25 points for every host.
5 Elo per extra day of rest, capped at 25 either way.
A manual thumb on the scale, in the home team's direction.
Win probability
63.9% NYG
Model value
Model spread
NYG -4.0
Elo diff +99.2 · Lean
Probability curve
The logistic curve from −600 to +600 Elo, home perspective. The dot is your current setting; the faint vertical line is where the model itself sits. Notice the curve is flattest at the extremes — near a coin flip, every point of Elo moves the number most.
Where the ratings came from
Each rating is the end state of a full 2025 season of Elo updates, regressed toward the league mean for the new season.
- 2025 final rating
- 1511.8
- Regress 25% toward 1500
- −2.4
- 2026 starting rating
- 1509.4
2025 Elo trail
Biggest swings
- W 17–7 at CAR+48.3
- L 10–24 vs ATL−45.0
- W 26–14 vs NYG+37.6
- 2025 final rating
- 1482.0
- Regress 25% toward 1500
- +6.5
- 2026 starting rating
- 1488.5
2025 Elo trail
Biggest swings
- W 34–17 vs PHI+52.9
- W 34–10 at LV+46.7
- W 34–17 vs DAL+41.6
Matchup factors
Everything beyond the two base ratings that moved this specific number.
Home field
+25.0 pts
worth 3.4 points of win probability
NYG hosts at MetLife Stadium. Every host gets the same flat 25 points — the model does not rate crowds individually.
2025 head to head
- Week 5: NO won 26–14 (NYG on the road)
Strength of schedule
Who each team actually played in 2025, measured by their opponents' current ratings. This is context for reading the ratings — it is not an input to the prediction above, because beating good teams already raises a team's Elo more.
1496
average opponent rating · 21st toughest of 32
- vs above-average teams
- 0-8
- vs below-average teams
- 6-3
1494
average opponent rating · 24th toughest of 32
- vs above-average teams
- 2-7
- vs below-average teams
- 2-6
What the model does not know
- · How an injury actually plays out — the adjustment above prices availability, not how well a replacement performs.
- · Coaching and roster turnover between seasons.
- · Weather, travel distance and short-week fatigue beyond raw rest days.
- · Anything a betting market has priced in since the season ended.