Week 7 · Sun, 1:00 PM EDT · CBS
Cincinnati Bengals at Baltimore Ravens
M&T Bank Stadium, Baltimore, MD
Market line for comparison: BAL -2.5 · O/U 51.5 (Draft Kings). The model never sees this.
Rating inputs
Each starting rating is a weighted blend of five real football inputs, not just wins and losses. Every term below is measured from the 2025 season.
Cincinnati Bengals
| Input | Rating | Weight | Contribution |
|---|---|---|---|
Elo from results 6-11 in 2025, opponent-adjusted | 1494 | 80% | 1195.4 |
Scoring strength 414–492 points (-78.0 differential) → 39.9% expected win rate | 1429 | 5% | 71.4 |
Late-season form same replay with the closing 6 weeks counted double | 1505 | 15% | 225.7 |
Offense / defense split 24.4 PPG scored, 28.9 allowed → offense 1534, defense 1352 | 1385 | 0% | 0.0 |
| Blended 2025 rating | 1492.5 | ||
Offseason regression 25% back toward the 1500 league mean | 1494.4 | ||
Roster / QB adjustment No offseason adjustment applied. | 0.0 | ||
| CIN 2026 starting rating | 1494 | ||
Baltimore Ravens
| Input | Rating | Weight | Contribution |
|---|---|---|---|
Elo from results 8-9 in 2025, opponent-adjusted | 1523 | 80% | 1218.8 |
Scoring strength 424–398 points (+26.0 differential) → 53.7% expected win rate | 1526 | 5% | 76.3 |
Late-season form same replay with the closing 6 weeks counted double | 1533 | 15% | 229.9 |
Offense / defense split 24.9 PPG scored, 23.4 allowed → offense 1548, defense 1490 | 1538 | 0% | 0.0 |
| Blended 2025 rating | 1525.0 | ||
Offseason regression 25% back toward the 1500 league mean | 1518.7 | ||
Roster / QB adjustment No offseason adjustment applied. | 0.0 | ||
| BAL 2026 starting rating | 1519 | ||
The calculation
Every term the model applies, in order, from both teams' starting ratings to the number on the card.
Win probability
1 / (1 + 10−(9.4 / 400))
51.3% BAL
Model spread
9.4 ÷ 25, rounded to the nearest half point
BAL -0.5
Confidence band
Injury adjustment
Report pulled 2026-10-27 13:20 UTCRatings describe a team over a whole season. Who is actually available on Sunday is a separate question, so the injury adjustment is applied last, after home field and rest. Each listed player costs a share of a point of spread based on his position, whether he starts, and how likely he is to play.
Before injuries
51.5%
BAL by 0.5
Injury term
−0.8 Elo
−0.0 pts of spread, home perspective
After injuries
51.4%
BAL by 0.5 · moved 0.1 pts of probability
Cincinnati Bengals
−0.3 pts
- Tanner Hudson TEOut−0.10
- Swayze Bozeman LBOut−0.10
- Kyle Dugger SOut−0.10
- Erick All Jr. TEQuestionable−0.03
Baltimore Ravens
−0.5 pts
- Jaylinn Hawkins SOut−0.10
- T.J. Tampa CBOut−0.10
- Broderick Washington Jr. DTOut−0.10
- Tavius Robinson LBOut−0.10
Statuses come straight from the league injury report: out and injured reserve count in full, doubtful three quarters, questionable roughly a third, probable a tenth. Starters are identified from the depth chart; anyone the model cannot place is treated as a backup.
Move the factors yourself
Every term feeds one number: the adjusted Elo difference. Drag any of them and watch the spread and confidence follow.
Drag to see how much a stronger or weaker host changes the call.
The two ratings only matter through their difference.
The tuned value is a flat 25 points for every host.
5 Elo per extra day of rest, capped at 25 either way.
A manual thumb on the scale, in the home team's direction.
Win probability
51.5% BAL
Model value
Model spread
BAL -0.5
Elo diff +10.1 · Coin flip
Probability curve
The logistic curve from −600 to +600 Elo, home perspective. The dot is your current setting; the faint vertical line is where the model itself sits. Notice the curve is flattest at the extremes — near a coin flip, every point of Elo moves the number most.
Where the ratings came from
Each rating is the end state of a full 2025 season of Elo updates, regressed toward the league mean for the new season.
- 2025 final rating
- 1494.2
- Regress 25% toward 1500
- +0.2
- 2026 starting rating
- 1494.4
2025 Elo trail
Biggest swings
- W 32–14 at BAL+67.5
- W 45–21 at MIA+62.0
- L 10–48 at MIN−56.5
- 2025 final rating
- 1523.5
- Regress 25% toward 1500
- −4.8
- 2026 starting rating
- 1518.7
2025 Elo trail
Biggest swings
- L 14–32 vs CIN−67.5
- W 30–16 vs CHI+49.8
- L 10–44 vs HOU−49.0
Matchup factors
Everything beyond the two base ratings that moved this specific number.
Home field
+25.0 pts
worth 3.6 points of win probability
BAL hosts at M&T Bank Stadium. Every host gets the same flat 25 points — the model does not rate crowds individually.
Rest
−25.0 pts
worth 3.6 points of win probability
5 Elo points per extra day of rest, capped at 25 either way.
2025 head to head
- Week 13: CIN won 32–14 (BAL at home)
- Week 15: BAL won 24–0 (BAL on the road)
Strength of schedule
Who each team actually played in 2025, measured by their opponents' current ratings. This is context for reading the ratings — it is not an input to the prediction above, because beating good teams already raises a team's Elo more.
1509
average opponent rating · 8th toughest of 32
- vs above-average teams
- 3-7
- vs below-average teams
- 3-4
1506
average opponent rating · 11th toughest of 32
- vs above-average teams
- 2-6
- vs below-average teams
- 6-3
What the model does not know
- · How an injury actually plays out — the adjustment above prices availability, not how well a replacement performs.
- · Coaching and roster turnover between seasons.
- · Weather, travel distance and short-week fatigue beyond raw rest days.
- · Anything a betting market has priced in since the season ended.