Week 8 · Sun, 8:20 PM EST · NBC
Philadelphia Eagles at Washington Commanders
Northwest Stadium, Landover, MD
Rating inputs
Each starting rating is a weighted blend of five real football inputs, not just wins and losses. Every term below is measured from the 2025 season.
Philadelphia Eagles
| Input | Rating | Weight | Contribution |
|---|---|---|---|
Elo from results 11-6 in 2025, opponent-adjusted | 1502 | 80% | 1201.7 |
Scoring strength 379–325 points (+54.0 differential) → 59.0% expected win rate | 1563 | 5% | 78.2 |
Late-season form same replay with the closing 6 weeks counted double | 1473 | 15% | 220.9 |
Offense / defense split 22.3 PPG scored, 19.1 allowed → offense 1482, defense 1597 | 1579 | 0% | 0.0 |
| Blended 2025 rating | 1500.8 | ||
Offseason regression 25% back toward the 1500 league mean | 1500.6 | ||
Roster / QB adjustment No offseason adjustment applied. | 0.0 | ||
| PHI 2026 starting rating | 1501 | ||
Washington Commanders
| Input | Rating | Weight | Contribution |
|---|---|---|---|
Elo from results 5-12 in 2025, opponent-adjusted | 1448 | 80% | 1158.2 |
Scoring strength 356–451 points (-95.0 differential) → 36.3% expected win rate | 1403 | 5% | 70.1 |
Late-season form same replay with the closing 6 weeks counted double | 1452 | 15% | 217.8 |
Offense / defense split 20.9 PPG scored, 26.5 allowed → offense 1448, defense 1412 | 1360 | 0% | 0.0 |
| Blended 2025 rating | 1446.1 | ||
Offseason regression 25% back toward the 1500 league mean | 1459.6 | ||
Roster / QB adjustment No offseason adjustment applied. | 0.0 | ||
| WSH 2026 starting rating | 1460 | ||
The calculation
Every term the model applies, in order, from both teams' starting ratings to the number on the card.
Win probability
1 / (1 + 10−(91.7 / 400))
62.9% WSH
Model spread
91.7 ÷ 25, rounded to the nearest half point
WSH -3.5
Confidence band
Injury adjustment
Report pulled 2026-10-27 13:20 UTCRatings describe a team over a whole season. Who is actually available on Sunday is a separate question, so the injury adjustment is applied last, after home field and rest. Each listed player costs a share of a point of spread based on his position, whether he starts, and how likely he is to play.
Before injuries
61.3%
WSH by 3.0
Injury term
+11.8 Elo
+0.5 pts of spread, home perspective
After injuries
62.9%
WSH by 3.5 · moved 1.6 pts of probability
Philadelphia Eagles
−0.9 pts
- Cole Payton QBOut−0.10
- Lane Johnson OTOut−0.10
- Dontayvion Wicks WROut−0.10
- DeVonta Smith WROut−0.10
Washington Commanders
−0.4 pts
- Terry McLaurin WROut−0.10
- Jaylin Lane WROut−0.10
- Javontae Jean-Baptiste LBOut−0.10
- Marcus Mariota QBQuestionable−0.03
Statuses come straight from the league injury report: out and injured reserve count in full, doubtful three quarters, questionable roughly a third, probable a tenth. Starters are identified from the depth chart; anyone the model cannot place is treated as a backup.
Move the factors yourself
Every term feeds one number: the adjusted Elo difference. Drag any of them and watch the spread and confidence follow.
Drag to see how much a stronger or weaker host changes the call.
The two ratings only matter through their difference.
The tuned value is a flat 25 points for every host.
5 Elo per extra day of rest, capped at 25 either way.
A manual thumb on the scale, in the home team's direction.
Win probability
61.3% WSH
Model value
Model spread
WSH -3.0
Elo diff +80.0 · Lean
Probability curve
The logistic curve from −600 to +600 Elo, home perspective. The dot is your current setting; the faint vertical line is where the model itself sits. Notice the curve is flattest at the extremes — near a coin flip, every point of Elo moves the number most.
Where the ratings came from
Each rating is the end state of a full 2025 season of Elo updates, regressed toward the league mean for the new season.
- 2025 final rating
- 1502.2
- Regress 25% toward 1500
- −1.5
- 2026 starting rating
- 1500.6
2025 Elo trail
Biggest swings
- L 17–34 at NYG−52.9
- L 17–24 vs WSH−46.7
- L 15–24 vs CHI−35.6
- 2025 final rating
- 1447.8
- Regress 25% toward 1500
- +11.8
- 2026 starting rating
- 1459.6
2025 Elo trail
Biggest swings
- W 27–10 at LAC+48.4
- L 22–44 at DAL−46.9
- W 24–17 at PHI+46.7
Matchup factors
Everything beyond the two base ratings that moved this specific number.
Home field
+25.0 pts
worth 3.4 points of win probability
WSH hosts at Northwest Stadium. Every host gets the same flat 25 points — the model does not rate crowds individually.
Rest
+25.0 pts
worth 3.4 points of win probability
5 Elo points per extra day of rest, capped at 25 either way.
2025 head to head
- Week 16: PHI won 29–18 (WSH at home)
- Week 18: WSH won 24–17 (WSH on the road)
Strength of schedule
Who each team actually played in 2025, measured by their opponents' current ratings. This is context for reading the ratings — it is not an input to the prediction above, because beating good teams already raises a team's Elo more.
1489
average opponent rating · 28th toughest of 32
- vs above-average teams
- 3-3
- vs below-average teams
- 8-3
1494
average opponent rating · 23rd toughest of 32
- vs above-average teams
- 2-6
- vs below-average teams
- 3-6
What the model does not know
- · How an injury actually plays out — the adjustment above prices availability, not how well a replacement performs.
- · Coaching and roster turnover between seasons.
- · Weather, travel distance and short-week fatigue beyond raw rest days.
- · Anything a betting market has priced in since the season ended.