Week 8 · Sun, 1:00 PM EST · CBS
Baltimore Ravens at Buffalo Bills
Highmark Stadium, Orchard Park, NY
Market line for comparison: BUF -3.5 · O/U 53.5 (DraftKings). The model never sees this.
Rating inputs
Each starting rating is a weighted blend of five real football inputs, not just wins and losses. Every term below is measured from the 2025 season.
Baltimore Ravens
| Input | Rating | Weight | Contribution |
|---|---|---|---|
Elo from results 8-9 in 2025, opponent-adjusted | 1523 | 80% | 1218.8 |
Scoring strength 424–398 points (+26.0 differential) → 53.7% expected win rate | 1526 | 5% | 76.3 |
Late-season form same replay with the closing 6 weeks counted double | 1533 | 15% | 229.9 |
Offense / defense split 24.9 PPG scored, 23.4 allowed → offense 1548, defense 1490 | 1538 | 0% | 0.0 |
| Blended 2025 rating | 1525.0 | ||
Offseason regression 25% back toward the 1500 league mean | 1518.7 | ||
Roster / QB adjustment No offseason adjustment applied. | 0.0 | ||
| BAL 2026 starting rating | 1519 | ||
Buffalo Bills
| Input | Rating | Weight | Contribution |
|---|---|---|---|
Elo from results 12-5 in 2025, opponent-adjusted | 1577 | 80% | 1261.8 |
Scoring strength 481–365 points (+116.0 differential) → 65.8% expected win rate | 1614 | 5% | 80.7 |
Late-season form same replay with the closing 6 weeks counted double | 1619 | 15% | 242.8 |
Offense / defense split 28.3 PPG scored, 21.5 allowed → offense 1632, defense 1539 | 1671 | 0% | 0.0 |
| Blended 2025 rating | 1585.4 | ||
Offseason regression 25% back toward the 1500 league mean | 1564.0 | ||
Roster / QB adjustment No offseason adjustment applied. | 0.0 | ||
| BUF 2026 starting rating | 1564 | ||
The calculation
Every term the model applies, in order, from both teams' starting ratings to the number on the card.
Win probability
1 / (1 + 10−(145.1 / 400))
69.8% BUF
Model spread
145.1 ÷ 25, rounded to the nearest half point
BUF -6.0
Confidence band
Injury adjustment
Report pulled 2026-10-27 13:20 UTCRatings describe a team over a whole season. Who is actually available on Sunday is a separate question, so the injury adjustment is applied last, after home field and rest. Each listed player costs a share of a point of spread based on his position, whether he starts, and how likely he is to play.
Before injuries
68.8%
BUF by 5.5
Injury term
+7.5 Elo
+0.3 pts of spread, home perspective
After injuries
69.8%
BUF by 6.0 · moved 0.9 pts of probability
Baltimore Ravens
−0.5 pts
- Jaylinn Hawkins SOut−0.10
- Broderick Washington Jr. DTOut−0.10
- T.J. Tampa CBOut−0.10
- Tavius Robinson LBOut−0.10
Buffalo Bills
−0.2 pts
- C.J. Gardner-Johnson SOut−0.10
- Ed Oliver DTQuestionable−0.03
- DJ Moore WRQuestionable−0.03
Statuses come straight from the league injury report: out and injured reserve count in full, doubtful three quarters, questionable roughly a third, probable a tenth. Starters are identified from the depth chart; anyone the model cannot place is treated as a backup.
Move the factors yourself
Every term feeds one number: the adjusted Elo difference. Drag any of them and watch the spread and confidence follow.
Drag to see how much a stronger or weaker host changes the call.
The two ratings only matter through their difference.
The tuned value is a flat 25 points for every host.
5 Elo per extra day of rest, capped at 25 either way.
A manual thumb on the scale, in the home team's direction.
Win probability
68.8% BUF
Model value
Model spread
BUF -5.5
Elo diff +137.6 · Confident
Probability curve
The logistic curve from −600 to +600 Elo, home perspective. The dot is your current setting; the faint vertical line is where the model itself sits. Notice the curve is flattest at the extremes — near a coin flip, every point of Elo moves the number most.
Where the ratings came from
Each rating is the end state of a full 2025 season of Elo updates, regressed toward the league mean for the new season.
- 2025 final rating
- 1523.5
- Regress 25% toward 1500
- −4.8
- 2026 starting rating
- 1518.7
2025 Elo trail
Biggest swings
- L 14–32 vs CIN−67.5
- W 30–16 vs CHI+49.8
- L 10–44 vs HOU−49.0
- 2025 final rating
- 1577.3
- Regress 25% toward 1500
- −13.3
- 2026 starting rating
- 1564.0
2025 Elo trail
Biggest swings
- L 13–30 at MIA−57.0
- W 40–9 at CAR+55.2
- W 30–10 at NYJ+42.9
Matchup factors
Everything beyond the two base ratings that moved this specific number.
Home field
+25.0 pts
worth 3.1 points of win probability
BUF hosts at Highmark Stadium. Every host gets the same flat 25 points — the model does not rate crowds individually.
Rest
+25.0 pts
worth 3.1 points of win probability
5 Elo points per extra day of rest, capped at 25 either way.
2025 head to head
- Week 1: BUF won 41–40 (BUF at home)
Strength of schedule
Who each team actually played in 2025, measured by their opponents' current ratings. This is context for reading the ratings — it is not an input to the prediction above, because beating good teams already raises a team's Elo more.
1506
average opponent rating · 11th toughest of 32
- vs above-average teams
- 2-6
- vs below-average teams
- 6-3
1492
average opponent rating · 26th toughest of 32
- vs above-average teams
- 4-4
- vs below-average teams
- 8-1
What the model does not know
- · How an injury actually plays out — the adjustment above prices availability, not how well a replacement performs.
- · Coaching and roster turnover between seasons.
- · Weather, travel distance and short-week fatigue beyond raw rest days.
- · Anything a betting market has priced in since the season ended.