Week 3 · Sun, 1:00 PM EDT · FOX
Los Angeles Chargers at Buffalo Bills
Highmark Stadium, Orchard Park, NY
Market line for comparison: BUF -7 · O/U 50.5 (DraftKings). The model never sees this.
Rating inputs
Each starting rating is a weighted blend of five real football inputs, not just wins and losses. Every term below is measured from the 2025 season.
Los Angeles Chargers
| Input | Rating | Weight | Contribution |
|---|---|---|---|
Elo from results 11-6 in 2025, opponent-adjusted | 1511 | 80% | 1208.5 |
Scoring strength 368–340 points (+28.0 differential) → 54.7% expected win rate | 1533 | 5% | 76.6 |
Late-season form same replay with the closing 6 weeks counted double | 1495 | 15% | 224.3 |
Offense / defense split 21.6 PPG scored, 20.0 allowed → offense 1466, defense 1575 | 1541 | 0% | 0.0 |
| Blended 2025 rating | 1509.4 | ||
Offseason regression 25% back toward the 1500 league mean | 1507.1 | ||
Roster / QB adjustment No offseason adjustment applied. | 0.0 | ||
| LAC 2026 starting rating | 1507 | ||
Buffalo Bills
| Input | Rating | Weight | Contribution |
|---|---|---|---|
Elo from results 12-5 in 2025, opponent-adjusted | 1577 | 80% | 1261.8 |
Scoring strength 481–365 points (+116.0 differential) → 65.8% expected win rate | 1614 | 5% | 80.7 |
Late-season form same replay with the closing 6 weeks counted double | 1619 | 15% | 242.8 |
Offense / defense split 28.3 PPG scored, 21.5 allowed → offense 1632, defense 1539 | 1671 | 0% | 0.0 |
| Blended 2025 rating | 1585.4 | ||
Offseason regression 25% back toward the 1500 league mean | 1564.0 | ||
Roster / QB adjustment No offseason adjustment applied. | 0.0 | ||
| BUF 2026 starting rating | 1564 | ||
The calculation
Every term the model applies, in order, from both teams' starting ratings to the number on the card.
Win probability
1 / (1 + 10−(227.2 / 400))
78.7% BUF
Model spread
227.2 ÷ 25, rounded to the nearest half point
BUF -9.0
Confidence band
Injury adjustment
Report pulled 2026-10-27 13:20 UTCRatings describe a team over a whole season. Who is actually available on Sunday is a separate question, so the injury adjustment is applied last, after home field and rest. Each listed player costs a share of a point of spread based on his position, whether he starts, and how likely he is to play.
Before injuries
77.0%
BUF by 8.5
Injury term
+17.5 Elo
+0.7 pts of spread, home perspective
After injuries
78.7%
BUF by 9.0 · moved 1.7 pts of probability
Los Angeles Chargers
−0.5 pts
- Denzel Perryman LBOut−0.10
- Alec Ingold FBOut−0.10
- Ladd McConkey WRQuestionable−0.03
- Brenen Thompson WRQuestionable−0.03
Buffalo Bills
−0.2 pts
- C.J. Gardner-Johnson SOut−0.10
- Ed Oliver DTQuestionable−0.03
- DJ Moore WRQuestionable−0.03
Statuses come straight from the league injury report: out and injured reserve count in full, doubtful three quarters, questionable roughly a third, probable a tenth. Starters are identified from the depth chart; anyone the model cannot place is treated as a backup.
Move the factors yourself
Every term feeds one number: the adjusted Elo difference. Drag any of them and watch the spread and confidence follow.
Drag to see how much a stronger or weaker host changes the call.
The two ratings only matter through their difference.
The tuned value is a flat 25 points for every host.
5 Elo per extra day of rest, capped at 25 either way.
A manual thumb on the scale, in the home team's direction.
Win probability
77.0% BUF
Model value
Model spread
BUF -8.5
Elo diff +209.7 · Strong
Probability curve
The logistic curve from −600 to +600 Elo, home perspective. The dot is your current setting; the faint vertical line is where the model itself sits. Notice the curve is flattest at the extremes — near a coin flip, every point of Elo moves the number most.
Where the ratings came from
Each rating is the end state of a full 2025 season of Elo updates, regressed toward the league mean for the new season.
- 2025 final rating
- 1510.7
- Regress 25% toward 1500
- −3.6
- 2026 starting rating
- 1507.1
2025 Elo trail
Biggest swings
- L 6–35 at JAX−57.7
- L 10–27 vs WSH−48.4
- W 37–10 vs MIN+45.4
- 2025 final rating
- 1577.3
- Regress 25% toward 1500
- −13.3
- 2026 starting rating
- 1564.0
2025 Elo trail
Biggest swings
- L 13–30 at MIA−57.0
- W 40–9 at CAR+55.2
- W 30–10 at NYJ+42.9
Matchup factors
Everything beyond the two base ratings that moved this specific number.
Home field
+25.0 pts
worth 2.5 points of win probability
BUF hosts at Highmark Stadium. Every host gets the same flat 25 points — the model does not rate crowds individually.
Rest
+15.0 pts
worth 1.5 points of win probability
5 Elo points per extra day of rest, capped at 25 either way.
2025 head to head
These teams did not meet in 2025. Past meetings carry no weight in the model anyway — they are already baked into each team's rating.
Strength of schedule
Who each team actually played in 2025, measured by their opponents' current ratings. This is context for reading the ratings — it is not an input to the prediction above, because beating good teams already raises a team's Elo more.
1488
average opponent rating · 29th toughest of 32
- vs above-average teams
- 4-3
- vs below-average teams
- 7-3
1492
average opponent rating · 26th toughest of 32
- vs above-average teams
- 4-4
- vs below-average teams
- 8-1
What the model does not know
- · How an injury actually plays out — the adjustment above prices availability, not how well a replacement performs.
- · Coaching and roster turnover between seasons.
- · Weather, travel distance and short-week fatigue beyond raw rest days.
- · Anything a betting market has priced in since the season ended.