Week 3 · Sun, 1:00 PM EDT · FOX
Seattle Seahawks at Washington Commanders
Northwest Stadium, Landover, MD
Market line for comparison: SEA -7 · O/U 40.5 (DraftKings). The model never sees this.
Rating inputs
Each starting rating is a weighted blend of five real football inputs, not just wins and losses. Every term below is measured from the 2025 season.
Seattle Seahawks
| Input | Rating | Weight | Contribution |
|---|---|---|---|
Elo from results 14-3 in 2025, opponent-adjusted | 1643 | 80% | 1314.2 |
Scoring strength 483–292 points (+191.0 differential) → 76.7% expected win rate | 1707 | 5% | 85.4 |
Late-season form same replay with the closing 6 weeks counted double | 1724 | 15% | 258.6 |
Offense / defense split 28.4 PPG scored, 17.2 allowed → offense 1635, defense 1646 | 1781 | 0% | 0.0 |
| Blended 2025 rating | 1658.2 | ||
Offseason regression 25% back toward the 1500 league mean | 1618.6 | ||
Roster / QB adjustment No offseason adjustment applied. | 0.0 | ||
| SEA 2026 starting rating | 1619 | ||
Washington Commanders
| Input | Rating | Weight | Contribution |
|---|---|---|---|
Elo from results 5-12 in 2025, opponent-adjusted | 1448 | 80% | 1158.2 |
Scoring strength 356–451 points (-95.0 differential) → 36.3% expected win rate | 1403 | 5% | 70.1 |
Late-season form same replay with the closing 6 weeks counted double | 1452 | 15% | 217.8 |
Offense / defense split 20.9 PPG scored, 26.5 allowed → offense 1448, defense 1412 | 1360 | 0% | 0.0 |
| Blended 2025 rating | 1446.1 | ||
Offseason regression 25% back toward the 1500 league mean | 1459.6 | ||
Roster / QB adjustment No offseason adjustment applied. | 0.0 | ||
| WSH 2026 starting rating | 1460 | ||
The calculation
Every term the model applies, in order, from both teams' starting ratings to the number on the card.
Win probability
1 / (1 + 10−(-303.3 / 400))
85.1% SEA
Model spread
-303.3 ÷ 25, rounded to the nearest half point
SEA -12.0
Confidence band
Injury adjustment
Report pulled 2026-10-27 13:20 UTCRatings describe a team over a whole season. Who is actually available on Sunday is a separate question, so the injury adjustment is applied last, after home field and rest. Each listed player costs a share of a point of spread based on his position, whether he starts, and how likely he is to play.
Before injuries
74.4%
SEA by 7.5
Injury term
−117.5 Elo
−4.7 pts of spread, home perspective
After injuries
85.1%
SEA by 12.0 · moved 10.7 pts of probability
Seattle Seahawks
−0.4 pts
- Jadarian Price RBOut−0.10
- Charles Cross OTDoubtful−0.08
- Velus Jones Jr. RBQuestionable−0.03
- Rashid Shaheed WRQuestionable−0.03
Washington Commanders
−0.4 pts
- Jaylin Lane WROut−0.10
- Terry McLaurin WROut−0.10
- Javontae Jean-Baptiste LBOut−0.10
- Marcus Mariota QBQuestionable−0.03
Statuses come straight from the league injury report: out and injured reserve count in full, doubtful three quarters, questionable roughly a third, probable a tenth. Starters are identified from the depth chart; anyone the model cannot place is treated as a backup.
Move the factors yourself
Every term feeds one number: the adjusted Elo difference. Drag any of them and watch the spread and confidence follow.
Drag to see how much a stronger or weaker host changes the call.
The two ratings only matter through their difference.
The tuned value is a flat 25 points for every host.
5 Elo per extra day of rest, capped at 25 either way.
A manual thumb on the scale, in the home team's direction.
Win probability
74.4% SEA
Model value
Model spread
SEA -7.5
Elo diff −185.7 · Confident
Probability curve
The logistic curve from −600 to +600 Elo, home perspective. The dot is your current setting; the faint vertical line is where the model itself sits. Notice the curve is flattest at the extremes — near a coin flip, every point of Elo moves the number most.
Where the ratings came from
Each rating is the end state of a full 2025 season of Elo updates, regressed toward the league mean for the new season.
- 2025 final rating
- 1642.8
- Regress 25% toward 1500
- −24.1
- 2026 starting rating
- 1618.6
2025 Elo trail
Biggest swings
- W 31–17 at PIT+45.9
- W 20–12 at JAX+36.3
- W 44–13 vs NO+34.4
- 2025 final rating
- 1447.8
- Regress 25% toward 1500
- +11.8
- 2026 starting rating
- 1459.6
2025 Elo trail
Biggest swings
- W 27–10 at LAC+48.4
- L 22–44 at DAL−46.9
- W 24–17 at PHI+46.7
Matchup factors
Everything beyond the two base ratings that moved this specific number.
Home field
+25.0 pts
worth 1.7 points of win probability
WSH hosts at Northwest Stadium. Every host gets the same flat 25 points — the model does not rate crowds individually.
2025 head to head
- Week 9: SEA won 38–14 (WSH at home)
Strength of schedule
Who each team actually played in 2025, measured by their opponents' current ratings. This is context for reading the ratings — it is not an input to the prediction above, because beating good teams already raises a team's Elo more.
1503
average opponent rating · 13th toughest of 32
- vs above-average teams
- 8-2
- vs below-average teams
- 6-1
1494
average opponent rating · 23rd toughest of 32
- vs above-average teams
- 2-6
- vs below-average teams
- 3-6
What the model does not know
- · How an injury actually plays out — the adjustment above prices availability, not how well a replacement performs.
- · Coaching and roster turnover between seasons.
- · Weather, travel distance and short-week fatigue beyond raw rest days.
- · Anything a betting market has priced in since the season ended.