NFC South
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
8-9 in 2025 · 380–411 (-31)
Rating · rank
1461
#22 of 32
2025 final Elo
1452
Offseason move
+10
Model on their games
12-5
Avg win probability
50%
Next up
Week 1 · 2026
Sun, 1:00 PM EDT · FOX
at
Cincinnati Bengals
Paycor Stadium, Cincinnati
Model win probability
42%
Lean · +2.5
2026 season projection
Full league forecast →From 10,000 simulated seasons, with results so far treated as certain.
- Projected record
- 8.1–9.9
- 5–12 wins typical
- Playoffs
- 38%
- 22% to win the division
- Super Bowl
- 3%
- 5% for the #1 seed
- Remaining SoS
- 1501
- 19% top-5 pick
Why TB rates here
The 2026 starting rating is a weighted blend of measured 2025 inputs, then offseason regression, then any hand-set roster adjustment.
| Input | Rating | Weight | Contribution |
|---|---|---|---|
Elo from results 8-9 in 2025, opponent-adjusted | 1452 | 80% | 1161.3 |
Scoring strength 380–411 points (-31.0 differential) → 45.4% expected win rate | 1468 | 5% | 73.4 |
Late-season form same replay with the closing 6 weeks counted double | 1424 | 15% | 213.5 |
Offense / defense split 22.4 PPG scored, 24.2 allowed → offense 1484, defense 1471 | 1454 | 0% | 0.0 |
| Blended 2025 rating | 1448.3 | ||
Offseason regression 25% back toward the 1500 league mean | 1461.2 | ||
Roster / QB adjustment No offseason adjustment applied. | 0.0 | ||
| TB 2026 starting rating | 1461 | ||
Schedule they played
Who TB actually faced in 2025, measured by those opponents' current ratings. Context only — it is not an input to the prediction, because beating good teams already moves Elo more.
1511
average opponent rating · 5th toughest of 32
- vs above-average teams
- 5-6
- vs below-average teams
- 3-3
Toughest faced
- Seattle Seahawks1619 · W
- Houston Texans1588 · W
- New England Patriots1587 · L
Easiest faced
- Arizona Cardinals1396 · W
- New York Jets1396 · W
- Miami Dolphins1456 · L
Rating through 2025
1500 → 14462025 season log
Win probability is what the model would have given TB before kickoff, using both teams' ratings at that point in the season.
| Wk | Opponent | Result | Pregame win prob | Pick | Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | W23–20 | 46% | ✕ | +21.0 | |
| 2 | W20–19 | 52% | ✓ | +9.2 | |
| 3 | vs  Jets | W29–27 | 64% | ✓ | +10.5 |
| 4 | vs  Eagles | L25–31 | 50% | ✕ | -27.4 |
| 5 | W38–35 | 31% | ✕ | +24.9 | |
| 6 | vs  49ers | W30–19 | 52% | ✓ | +32.8 |
| 7 | L9–24 | 43% | ✓ | -37.6 | |
| 8 | W23–3 | 63% | ✓ | +34.0 | |
| 10 | vs  Patriots | L23–28 | 44% | ✓ | -23.5 |
| 11 | L32–44 | 42% | ✓ | -32.5 | |
| 12 | @  Rams | L7–34 | 26% | ✓ | -25.8 |
| 13 | W20–17 | 57% | ✓ | +16.1 | |
| 14 | vs  Saints | L20–24 | 67% | ✕ | -29.6 |
| 15 | vs  Falcons | L28–29 | 58% | ✕ | -11.3 |
| 16 | L20–23 | 46% | ✓ | -16.5 | |
| 17 | L17–20 | 46% | ✓ | -17.0 | |
| 18 | vs  Panthers | W16–14 | 52% | ✓ | +15.8 |
| Model on 17 games | 12-5(71%) | avg 50% | -56.9 | ||
