NFC West
San Francisco 49ers
12-5 in 2025 · 437–371 (+66)
Rating · rank
1551
#8 of 32
2025 final Elo
1565
Offseason move
-14
Model on their games
12-5
Avg win probability
53%
Next up
Week 1 · 2026
Thu, 8:35 PM EDT · Netflix
Neutral site
Los Angeles Rams
Melbourne Cricket Ground, Melbourne
Model win probability
49%
Coin flip · 0.0
2026 season projection
Full league forecast →From 10,000 simulated seasons, with results so far treated as certain.
- Projected record
- 9.0–9.0
- 5–12 wins typical
- Playoffs
- 50%
- 25% to win the division
- Super Bowl
- 4%
- 8% for the #1 seed
- Remaining SoS
- 1498
- 11% top-5 pick
Why SF rates here
The 2026 starting rating is a weighted blend of measured 2025 inputs, then offseason regression, then any hand-set roster adjustment.
| Input | Rating | Weight | Contribution |
|---|---|---|---|
Elo from results 12-5 in 2025, opponent-adjusted | 1565 | 80% | 1251.9 |
Scoring strength 437–371 points (+66.0 differential) → 59.6% expected win rate | 1567 | 5% | 78.4 |
Late-season form same replay with the closing 6 weeks counted double | 1585 | 15% | 237.8 |
Offense / defense split 25.7 PPG scored, 21.8 allowed → offense 1567, defense 1530 | 1597 | 0% | 0.0 |
| Blended 2025 rating | 1568.0 | ||
Offseason regression 25% back toward the 1500 league mean | 1551.0 | ||
Roster / QB adjustment No offseason adjustment applied. | 0.0 | ||
| SF 2026 starting rating | 1551 | ||
Schedule they played
Who SF actually faced in 2025, measured by those opponents' current ratings. Context only — it is not an input to the prediction, because beating good teams already moves Elo more.
1509
average opponent rating · 7th toughest of 32
- vs above-average teams
- 5-4
- vs below-average teams
- 7-1
Toughest faced
- Seattle Seahawks1619 · W
- Seattle Seahawks1619 · L
- Jacksonville Jaguars1606 · L
Easiest faced
- Arizona Cardinals1396 · W
- Arizona Cardinals1396 · W
- Tennessee Titans1435 · W
Rating through 2025
1500 → 15722025 season log
Win probability is what the model would have given SF before kickoff, using both teams' ratings at that point in the season.
| Wk | Opponent | Result | Pregame win prob | Pick | Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | W17–13 | 46% | ✕ | +24.4 | |
| 2 | W26–21 | 54% | ✓ | +23.0 | |
| 3 | W16–15 | 53% | ✓ | +8.9 | |
| 4 | vs  Jaguars | L21–26 | 56% | ✕ | -28.5 |
| 5 | @ Rams | W26–23 | 40% | ✕ | +23.1 |
| 6 | L19–30 | 48% | ✓ | -32.8 | |
| 7 | vs  Falcons | W20–10 | 49% | ✕ | +34.7 |
| 8 | L15–26 | 44% | ✓ | -34.7 | |
| 9 | W34–24 | 56% | ✓ | +31.2 | |
| 10 | vs Rams | L26–42 | 39% | ✓ | -35.5 |
| 11 | W41–22 | 48% | ✕ | +43.9 | |
| 12 | vs  Panthers | W20–9 | 63% | ✓ | +26.0 |
| 13 | W26–8 | 62% | ✓ | +32.9 | |
| 15 | vs  Titans | W37–24 | 80% | ✓ | +17.2 |
| 16 | W48–27 | 55% | ✓ | +32.8 | |
| 17 | vs  Bears | W42–38 | 58% | ✓ | +19.1 |
| 18 | vs  Seahawks | L3–13 | 46% | ✓ | -34.4 |
| Model on 17 games | 12-5(71%) | avg 53% | +151.4 | ||
