NFC South
Atlanta Falcons
8-9 in 2025 · 353–401 (-48)
Rating · rank
1515
#13 of 32
2025 final Elo
1517
Offseason move
-2
Model on their games
5-12
Avg win probability
45%
Next up
Week 1 · 2026
Sun, 1:00 PM EDT · FOX
at
Pittsburgh Steelers
Acrisure Stadium, Pittsburgh
Model win probability
46%
Coin flip · +1.0
2026 season projection
Full league forecast →From 10,000 simulated seasons, with results so far treated as certain.
- Projected record
- 8.7–9.3
- 5–12 wins typical
- Playoffs
- 47%
- 28% to win the division
- Super Bowl
- 3%
- 6% for the #1 seed
- Remaining SoS
- 1491
- 13% top-5 pick
Why ATL rates here
The 2026 starting rating is a weighted blend of measured 2025 inputs, then offseason regression, then any hand-set roster adjustment.
| Input | Rating | Weight | Contribution |
|---|---|---|---|
Elo from results 8-9 in 2025, opponent-adjusted | 1517 | 80% | 1213.9 |
Scoring strength 353–401 points (-48.0 differential) → 42.5% expected win rate | 1448 | 5% | 72.4 |
Late-season form same replay with the closing 6 weeks counted double | 1558 | 15% | 233.7 |
Offense / defense split 20.8 PPG scored, 23.6 allowed → offense 1444, defense 1486 | 1429 | 0% | 0.0 |
| Blended 2025 rating | 1520.0 | ||
Offseason regression 25% back toward the 1500 league mean | 1515.0 | ||
Roster / QB adjustment No offseason adjustment applied. | 0.0 | ||
| ATL 2026 starting rating | 1515 | ||
Schedule they played
Who ATL actually faced in 2025, measured by those opponents' current ratings. Context only — it is not an input to the prediction, because beating good teams already moves Elo more.
1497
average opponent rating · 20th toughest of 32
- vs above-average teams
- 5-3
- vs below-average teams
- 3-6
Toughest faced
- Seattle Seahawks1619 · L
- New England Patriots1587 · L
- Buffalo Bills1564 · W
Easiest faced
- Arizona Cardinals1396 · W
- New York Jets1396 · L
- Indianapolis Colts1450 · L
Rating through 2025
1500 → 15192025 season log
Win probability is what the model would have given ATL before kickoff, using both teams' ratings at that point in the season.
| Wk | Opponent | Result | Pregame win prob | Pick | Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | L20–23 | 54% | ✕ | -21.0 | |
| 2 | W22–6 | 41% | ✕ | +48.1 | |
| 3 | L0–30 | 57% | ✕ | -55.8 | |
| 4 | W34–27 | 45% | ✕ | +32.6 | |
| 6 | vs  Bills | W24–14 | 40% | ✕ | +34.9 |
| 7 | L10–20 | 51% | ✕ | -34.7 | |
| 8 | vs  Dolphins | L10–34 | 70% | ✕ | -63.5 |
| 9 | L23–24 | 22% | ✓ | -5.0 | |
| 10 | L25–31 | 26% | ✓ | -18.1 | |
| 11 | vs  Panthers | L27–30 | 51% | ✕ | -19.7 |
| 12 | W24–10 | 48% | ✕ | +45.0 | |
| 13 | @  Jets | L24–27 | 54% | ✕ | -20.5 |
| 14 | vs  Seahawks | L9–37 | 27% | ✓ | -29.8 |
| 15 | W29–28 | 42% | ✕ | +11.3 | |
| 16 | W26–19 | 53% | ✓ | +26.8 | |
| 17 | vs  Rams | W27–24 | 30% | ✕ | +25.1 |
| 18 | vs  Saints | W19–17 | 52% | ✓ | +15.4 |
| Model on 17 games | 5-12(29%) | avg 45% | -28.8 | ||
