AFC West
Denver Broncos
14-3 in 2025 · 401–311 (+90)
Rating · rank
1574
#5 of 32
2025 final Elo
1592
Offseason move
-18
Model on their games
15-2
Avg win probability
59%
Next up
Week 1 · 2026
Mon, 8:15 PM EDT · ESPN/ABC
at
Kansas City Chiefs
Arrowhead Stadium, Kansas City
Model win probability
66%
Confident · -4.5
2026 season projection
Full league forecast →From 10,000 simulated seasons, with results so far treated as certain.
- Projected record
- 9.2–8.8
- 6–13 wins typical
- Playoffs
- 56%
- 38% to win the division
- Super Bowl
- 4%
- 10% for the #1 seed
- Remaining SoS
- 1493
- 9% top-5 pick
Why DEN rates here
The 2026 starting rating is a weighted blend of measured 2025 inputs, then offseason regression, then any hand-set roster adjustment.
| Input | Rating | Weight | Contribution |
|---|---|---|---|
Elo from results 14-3 in 2025, opponent-adjusted | 1592 | 80% | 1273.4 |
Scoring strength 401–311 points (+90.0 differential) → 64.6% expected win rate | 1605 | 5% | 80.2 |
Late-season form same replay with the closing 6 weeks counted double | 1633 | 15% | 244.9 |
Offense / defense split 23.6 PPG scored, 18.3 allowed → offense 1514, defense 1618 | 1632 | 0% | 0.0 |
| Blended 2025 rating | 1598.5 | ||
Offseason regression 25% back toward the 1500 league mean | 1573.9 | ||
Roster / QB adjustment No offseason adjustment applied. | 0.0 | ||
| DEN 2026 starting rating | 1574 | ||
Schedule they played
Who DEN actually faced in 2025, measured by those opponents' current ratings. Context only — it is not an input to the prediction, because beating good teams already moves Elo more.
1471
average opponent rating · 32nd toughest of 32
- vs above-average teams
- 3-2
- vs below-average teams
- 11-1
Toughest faced
- Jacksonville Jaguars1606 · L
- Houston Texans1588 · W
- Los Angeles Chargers1507 · L
Easiest faced
- Las Vegas Raiders1395 · W
- Las Vegas Raiders1395 · W
- New York Jets1396 · W
Rating through 2025
1500 → 16022025 season log
Win probability is what the model would have given DEN before kickoff, using both teams' ratings at that point in the season.
| Wk | Opponent | Result | Pregame win prob | Pick | Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | vs  Titans | W20–12 | 54% | ✓ | +28.2 |
| 2 | L28–29 | 45% | ✓ | -8.5 | |
| 3 | L20–23 | 41% | ✓ | -15.3 | |
| 4 | vs  Bengals | W28–3 | 57% | ✓ | +38.2 |
| 5 | W21–17 | 44% | ✕ | +27.5 | |
| 6 | n  Jets | W13–11 | 77% | ✓ | +8.3 |
| 7 | vs  Giants | W33–32 | 69% | ✓ | +6.7 |
| 8 | vs  Cowboys | W44–24 | 59% | ✓ | +35.0 |
| 9 | W18–15 | 51% | ✓ | +18.1 | |
| 10 | vs  Raiders | W10–7 | 80% | ✓ | +9.6 |
| 11 | vs Chiefs | W22–19 | 56% | ✓ | +15.3 |
| 13 | W27–26 | 73% | ✓ | +5.5 | |
| 14 | W24–17 | 79% | ✓ | +13.8 | |
| 15 | vs  Packers | W34–26 | 53% | ✓ | +29.0 |
| 16 | vs  Jaguars | L20–34 | 55% | ✕ | -42.5 |
| 17 | W20–13 | 60% | ✓ | +20.6 | |
| 18 | vs  Chargers | W19–3 | 58% | ✓ | +33.5 |
| Model on 17 games | 15-2(88%) | avg 59% | +223.1 | ||
