AFC South
Tennessee Titans
3-14 in 2025 · 284–478 (-194)
Rating · rank
1435
#28 of 32
2025 final Elo
1421
Offseason move
+14
Model on their games
14-3
Avg win probability
30%
Next up
Week 1 · 2026
Sun, 1:00 PM EDT · CBS
vs
New York Jets
Nissan Stadium, Nashville
Model win probability
59%
Lean · -2.5
2026 season projection
Full league forecast →From 10,000 simulated seasons, with results so far treated as certain.
- Projected record
- 7.8–10.2
- 4–11 wins typical
- Playoffs
- 34%
- 16% to win the division
- Super Bowl
- 2%
- 4% for the #1 seed
- Remaining SoS
- 1499
- 22% top-5 pick
Why TEN rates here
The 2026 starting rating is a weighted blend of measured 2025 inputs, then offseason regression, then any hand-set roster adjustment.
| Input | Rating | Weight | Contribution |
|---|---|---|---|
Elo from results 3-14 in 2025, opponent-adjusted | 1421 | 80% | 1136.5 |
Scoring strength 284–478 points (-194.0 differential) → 22.6% expected win rate | 1286 | 5% | 64.3 |
Late-season form same replay with the closing 6 weeks counted double | 1413 | 15% | 212.0 |
Offense / defense split 16.7 PPG scored, 28.1 allowed → offense 1342, defense 1372 | 1215 | 0% | 0.0 |
| Blended 2025 rating | 1412.7 | ||
Offseason regression 25% back toward the 1500 league mean | 1434.5 | ||
Roster / QB adjustment No offseason adjustment applied. | 0.0 | ||
| TEN 2026 starting rating | 1435 | ||
Schedule they played
Who TEN actually faced in 2025, measured by those opponents' current ratings. Context only — it is not an input to the prediction, because beating good teams already moves Elo more.
1523
average opponent rating · toughest of 32
- vs above-average teams
- 0-11
- vs below-average teams
- 3-3
Toughest faced
- Seattle Seahawks1619 · L
- Jacksonville Jaguars1606 · L
- Jacksonville Jaguars1606 · L
Easiest faced
- Las Vegas Raiders1395 · L
- Arizona Cardinals1396 · W
- Kansas City Chiefs1432 · W
Rating through 2025
1500 → 14122025 season log
Win probability is what the model would have given TEN before kickoff, using both teams' ratings at that point in the season.
| Wk | Opponent | Result | Pregame win prob | Pick | Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | L12–20 | 46% | ✓ | -28.2 | |
| 2 | vs  Rams | L19–33 | 47% | ✓ | -35.3 |
| 3 | vs  Colts | L20–41 | 40% | ✓ | -33.5 |
| 4 | L0–26 | 42% | ✓ | -37.4 | |
| 5 | W22–21 | 21% | ✕ | +14.3 | |
| 6 | L10–20 | 43% | ✓ | -29.6 | |
| 7 | vs  Patriots | L13–31 | 24% | ✓ | -25.1 |
| 8 | L14–38 | 12% | ✓ | -17.3 | |
| 9 | vs  Chargers | L20–27 | 26% | ✓ | -19.4 |
| 11 | vs  Texans | L13–16 | 23% | ✓ | -12.1 |
| 12 | vs  Seahawks | L24–30 | 18% | ✓ | -13.7 |
| 13 | vs  Jaguars | L3–25 | 27% | ✓ | -27.2 |
| 14 | W31–29 | 34% | ✕ | +20.0 | |
| 15 | L24–37 | 20% | ✓ | -17.2 | |
| 16 | vs  Chiefs | W26–9 | 31% | ✕ | +47.8 |
| 17 | vs  Saints | L26–34 | 44% | ✓ | -28.1 |
| 18 | L7–41 | 17% | ✓ | -20.2 | |
| Model on 17 games | 14-3(82%) | avg 30% | -262.2 | ||
