AFC West
Kansas City Chiefs
6-11 in 2025 · 362–328 (+34)
Rating · rank
1432
#29 of 32
2025 final Elo
1416
Offseason move
+16
Model on their games
8-9
Avg win probability
53%
Next up
Week 1 · 2026
Mon, 8:15 PM EDT · ESPN/ABC
vs
Denver Broncos
Arrowhead Stadium, Kansas City
Model win probability
34%
Confident · +4.5
2026 season projection
Full league forecast →From 10,000 simulated seasons, with results so far treated as certain.
- Projected record
- 7.8–10.2
- 4–11 wins typical
- Playoffs
- 35%
- 19% to win the division
- Super Bowl
- 2%
- 3% for the #1 seed
- Remaining SoS
- 1502
- 22% top-5 pick
Why KC rates here
The 2026 starting rating is a weighted blend of measured 2025 inputs, then offseason regression, then any hand-set roster adjustment.
| Input | Rating | Weight | Contribution |
|---|---|---|---|
Elo from results 6-11 in 2025, opponent-adjusted | 1416 | 80% | 1132.7 |
Scoring strength 362–328 points (+34.0 differential) → 55.8% expected win rate | 1541 | 5% | 77.0 |
Late-season form same replay with the closing 6 weeks counted double | 1331 | 15% | 199.6 |
Offense / defense split 21.3 PPG scored, 19.3 allowed → offense 1457, defense 1593 | 1550 | 0% | 0.0 |
| Blended 2025 rating | 1409.3 | ||
Offseason regression 25% back toward the 1500 league mean | 1432.0 | ||
Roster / QB adjustment No offseason adjustment applied. | 0.0 | ||
| KC 2026 starting rating | 1432 | ||
Schedule they played
Who KC actually faced in 2025, measured by those opponents' current ratings. Context only — it is not an input to the prediction, because beating good teams already moves Elo more.
1500
average opponent rating · 16th toughest of 32
- vs above-average teams
- 1-8
- vs below-average teams
- 5-3
Toughest faced
- Jacksonville Jaguars1606 · L
- Houston Texans1588 · L
- Denver Broncos1574 · L
Easiest faced
- Las Vegas Raiders1395 · L
- Las Vegas Raiders1395 · W
- Tennessee Titans1435 · L
Rating through 2025
1500 → 14062025 season log
Win probability is what the model would have given KC before kickoff, using both teams' ratings at that point in the season.
| Wk | Opponent | Result | Pregame win prob | Pick | Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | L21–27 | 50% | ✕ | -27.2 | |
| 2 | vs  Eagles | L17–20 | 47% | ✓ | -18.3 |
| 3 | W22–9 | 47% | ✕ | +39.4 | |
| 4 | vs  Ravens | W37–20 | 54% | ✓ | +36.4 |
| 5 | L28–31 | 44% | ✓ | -16.6 | |
| 6 | vs  Lions | W30–17 | 38% | ✕ | +42.5 |
| 7 | vs  Raiders | W31–0 | 73% | ✓ | +31.5 |
| 8 | W28–7 | 69% | ✓ | +27.9 | |
| 9 | L21–28 | 52% | ✕ | -30.4 | |
| 11 | L19–22 | 44% | ✓ | -15.3 | |
| 12 | vs  Colts | W23–20 | 47% | ✕ | +19.5 |
| 13 | L28–31 | 55% | ✕ | -19.3 | |
| 14 | vs  Texans | L10–20 | 49% | ✓ | -30.8 |
| 15 | vs  Chargers | L13–16 | 52% | ✕ | -18.4 |
| 16 | L9–26 | 69% | ✕ | -47.8 | |
| 17 | vs Broncos | L13–20 | 40% | ✓ | -20.6 |
| 18 | L12–14 | 67% | ✕ | -18.4 | |
| Model on 17 games | 8-9(47%) | avg 53% | -66.0 | ||
