AFC South
Indianapolis Colts
8-9 in 2025 · 466–412 (+54)
Rating · rank
1450
#26 of 32
2025 final Elo
1434
Offseason move
+16
Model on their games
13-4
Avg win probability
56%
Next up
Week 1 · 2026
Sun, 1:00 PM EDT · CBS
vs
Baltimore Ravens
Lucas Oil Stadium, Indianapolis
Model win probability
44%
Lean · +1.5
2026 season projection
Full league forecast →From 10,000 simulated seasons, with results so far treated as certain.
- Projected record
- 8.0–10.1
- 4–11 wins typical
- Playoffs
- 36%
- 17% to win the division
- Super Bowl
- 3%
- 4% for the #1 seed
- Remaining SoS
- 1506
- 21% top-5 pick
Why IND rates here
The 2026 starting rating is a weighted blend of measured 2025 inputs, then offseason regression, then any hand-set roster adjustment.
| Input | Rating | Weight | Contribution |
|---|---|---|---|
Elo from results 8-9 in 2025, opponent-adjusted | 1434 | 80% | 1147.0 |
Scoring strength 466–412 points (+54.0 differential) → 57.3% expected win rate | 1551 | 5% | 77.5 |
Late-season form same replay with the closing 6 weeks counted double | 1392 | 15% | 208.8 |
Offense / defense split 27.4 PPG scored, 24.2 allowed → offense 1610, defense 1469 | 1579 | 0% | 0.0 |
| Blended 2025 rating | 1433.4 | ||
Offseason regression 25% back toward the 1500 league mean | 1450.0 | ||
Roster / QB adjustment No offseason adjustment applied. | 0.0 | ||
| IND 2026 starting rating | 1450 | ||
Schedule they played
Who IND actually faced in 2025, measured by those opponents' current ratings. Context only — it is not an input to the prediction, because beating good teams already moves Elo more.
1516
average opponent rating · 4th toughest of 32
- vs above-average teams
- 3-8
- vs below-average teams
- 5-1
Toughest faced
- Seattle Seahawks1619 · L
- Jacksonville Jaguars1606 · L
- Jacksonville Jaguars1606 · L
Easiest faced
- Las Vegas Raiders1395 · W
- Arizona Cardinals1396 · W
- Kansas City Chiefs1432 · L
Rating through 2025
1500 → 14262025 season log
Win probability is what the model would have given IND before kickoff, using both teams' ratings at that point in the season.
| Wk | Opponent | Result | Pregame win prob | Pick | Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | vs  Dolphins | W33–8 | 54% | ✓ | +41.9 |
| 2 | vs  Broncos | W29–28 | 55% | ✓ | +8.5 |
| 3 | W41–20 | 60% | ✓ | +33.5 | |
| 4 | @  Rams | L20–27 | 53% | ✕ | -31.3 |
| 5 | vs  Raiders | W40–6 | 74% | ✓ | +34.0 |
| 6 | W31–27 | 71% | ✓ | +16.2 | |
| 7 | W38–24 | 65% | ✓ | +32.7 | |
| 8 | vs  Titans | W38–14 | 88% | ✓ | +17.3 |
| 9 | L20–27 | 70% | ✕ | -37.5 | |
| 10 | W31–25 | 74% | ✓ | +18.1 | |
| 12 | L20–23 | 53% | ✕ | -19.5 | |
| 13 | vs  Texans | L16–20 | 55% | ✕ | -22.6 |
| 14 | L19–36 | 46% | ✓ | -31.1 | |
| 15 | L16–18 | 28% | ✓ | -8.1 | |
| 16 | vs  49ers | L27–48 | 45% | ✓ | -32.8 |
| 17 | vs  Jaguars | L17–23 | 34% | ✓ | -15.3 |
| 18 | L30–38 | 28% | ✓ | -14.2 | |
| Model on 17 games | 13-4(76%) | avg 56% | -10.4 | ||
