AFC North
Cleveland Browns
5-12 in 2025 · 279–379 (-100)
Rating · rank
1482
#20 of 32
2025 final Elo
1477
Offseason move
+5
Model on their games
11-6
Avg win probability
40%
Next up
Week 1 · 2026
Sun, 1:00 PM EDT · CBS
at
Jacksonville Jaguars
EverBank Stadium, Jacksonville
Model win probability
30%
Confident · +6.0
2026 season projection
Full league forecast →From 10,000 simulated seasons, with results so far treated as certain.
- Projected record
- 8.3–9.7
- 5–12 wins typical
- Playoffs
- 42%
- 23% to win the division
- Super Bowl
- 3%
- 5% for the #1 seed
- Remaining SoS
- 1492
- 17% top-5 pick
Why CLE rates here
The 2026 starting rating is a weighted blend of measured 2025 inputs, then offseason regression, then any hand-set roster adjustment.
| Input | Rating | Weight | Contribution |
|---|---|---|---|
Elo from results 5-12 in 2025, opponent-adjusted | 1477 | 80% | 1181.3 |
Scoring strength 279–379 points (-100.0 differential) → 32.6% expected win rate | 1374 | 5% | 68.7 |
Late-season form same replay with the closing 6 weeks counted double | 1505 | 15% | 225.8 |
Offense / defense split 16.4 PPG scored, 22.3 allowed → offense 1335, defense 1518 | 1353 | 0% | 0.0 |
| Blended 2025 rating | 1475.8 | ||
Offseason regression 25% back toward the 1500 league mean | 1481.8 | ||
Roster / QB adjustment No offseason adjustment applied. | 0.0 | ||
| CLE 2026 starting rating | 1482 | ||
Schedule they played
Who CLE actually faced in 2025, measured by those opponents' current ratings. Context only — it is not an input to the prediction, because beating good teams already moves Elo more.
1499
average opponent rating · 17th toughest of 32
- vs above-average teams
- 1-8
- vs below-average teams
- 4-4
Toughest faced
- New England Patriots1587 · L
- Buffalo Bills1564 · L
- San Francisco 49ers1551 · L
Easiest faced
- Las Vegas Raiders1395 · W
- New York Jets1396 · L
- Tennessee Titans1435 · L
Rating through 2025
1500 → 14742025 season log
Win probability is what the model would have given CLE before kickoff, using both teams' ratings at that point in the season.
| Wk | Opponent | Result | Pregame win prob | Pick | Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | vs  Bengals | L16–17 | 54% | ✕ | -10.5 |
| 2 | L17–41 | 46% | ✓ | -41.1 | |
| 3 | vs  Packers | W13–10 | 39% | ✕ | +24.4 |
| 4 | L10–34 | 38% | ✓ | -32.6 | |
| 5 | L17–21 | 30% | ✓ | -18.7 | |
| 6 | L9–23 | 30% | ✓ | -25.5 | |
| 7 | vs  Dolphins | W31–6 | 48% | ✕ | +44.1 |
| 8 | L13–32 | 26% | ✓ | -26.0 | |
| 10 | @  Jets | L20–27 | 49% | ✓ | -29.9 |
| 11 | vs  Ravens | L16–23 | 37% | ✓ | -21.6 |
| 12 | W24–10 | 50% | ✓ | +39.5 | |
| 13 | vs  49ers | L8–26 | 38% | ✓ | -32.9 |
| 14 | vs  Titans | L29–31 | 66% | ✕ | -20.0 |
| 15 | L3–31 | 30% | ✓ | -27.6 | |
| 16 | vs  Bills | L20–23 | 25% | ✓ | -10.7 |
| 17 | vs  Steelers | W13–6 | 32% | ✕ | +40.9 |
| 18 | W20–18 | 39% | ✕ | +19.8 | |
| Model on 17 games | 11-6(65%) | avg 40% | -128.6 | ||
