AFC North
Baltimore Ravens
8-9 in 2025 · 424–398 (+26)
Rating · rank
1519
#10 of 32
2025 final Elo
1523
Offseason move
-5
Model on their games
9-8
Avg win probability
51%
Next up
Week 1 · 2026
Sun, 1:00 PM EDT · CBS
at
Indianapolis Colts
Lucas Oil Stadium, Indianapolis
Model win probability
56%
Lean · -1.5
2026 season projection
Full league forecast →From 10,000 simulated seasons, with results so far treated as certain.
- Projected record
- 8.7–9.3
- 5–12 wins typical
- Playoffs
- 48%
- 27% to win the division
- Super Bowl
- 3%
- 7% for the #1 seed
- Remaining SoS
- 1502
- 14% top-5 pick
Why BAL rates here
The 2026 starting rating is a weighted blend of measured 2025 inputs, then offseason regression, then any hand-set roster adjustment.
| Input | Rating | Weight | Contribution |
|---|---|---|---|
Elo from results 8-9 in 2025, opponent-adjusted | 1523 | 80% | 1218.8 |
Scoring strength 424–398 points (+26.0 differential) → 53.7% expected win rate | 1526 | 5% | 76.3 |
Late-season form same replay with the closing 6 weeks counted double | 1533 | 15% | 229.9 |
Offense / defense split 24.9 PPG scored, 23.4 allowed → offense 1548, defense 1490 | 1538 | 0% | 0.0 |
| Blended 2025 rating | 1525.0 | ||
Offseason regression 25% back toward the 1500 league mean | 1518.7 | ||
Roster / QB adjustment No offseason adjustment applied. | 0.0 | ||
| BAL 2026 starting rating | 1519 | ||
Schedule they played
Who BAL actually faced in 2025, measured by those opponents' current ratings. Context only — it is not an input to the prediction, because beating good teams already moves Elo more.
1506
average opponent rating · 11th toughest of 32
- vs above-average teams
- 2-6
- vs below-average teams
- 6-3
Toughest faced
- Houston Texans1588 · L
- New England Patriots1587 · L
- Buffalo Bills1564 · L
Easiest faced
- New York Jets1396 · W
- Kansas City Chiefs1432 · L
- Miami Dolphins1456 · W
Rating through 2025
1500 → 15262025 season log
Win probability is what the model would have given BAL before kickoff, using both teams' ratings at that point in the season.
| Wk | Opponent | Result | Pregame win prob | Pick | Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | L40–41 | 46% | ✓ | -8.9 | |
| 2 | vs  Browns | W41–17 | 54% | ✓ | +41.1 |
| 3 | vs  Lions | L30–38 | 56% | ✕ | -35.0 |
| 4 | L20–37 | 46% | ✓ | -36.4 | |
| 5 | vs  Texans | L10–44 | 47% | ✓ | -49.0 |
| 6 | vs  Rams | L3–17 | 34% | ✓ | -29.1 |
| 8 | vs  Bears | W30–16 | 34% | ✕ | +49.8 |
| 9 | W28–6 | 46% | ✕ | +48.4 | |
| 10 | W27–19 | 49% | ✕ | +29.8 | |
| 11 | W23–16 | 63% | ✓ | +21.6 | |
| 12 | vs  Jets | W23–10 | 70% | ✓ | +21.8 |
| 13 | vs  Bengals | L14–32 | 78% | ✕ | -67.5 |
| 14 | vs  Steelers | L22–27 | 58% | ✕ | -30.4 |
| 15 | W24–0 | 54% | ✓ | +47.1 | |
| 16 | vs  Patriots | L24–28 | 43% | ✓ | -21.0 |
| 17 | W41–24 | 40% | ✕ | +48.3 | |
| 18 | L24–26 | 51% | ✕ | -15.7 | |
| Model on 17 games | 9-8(53%) | avg 51% | +15.0 | ||
